https: //www.site/2017-06-21/posle_tuleeva_kemerovskaya_oblast_mozhet_stat_odnim_iz_samyh_problemnyh_regionov

Popular autocrat

After Tuleyev, Kemerovo Region may become one of the most problematic regions

In the coming days, Kemerovo Governor Aman Tuleyev may resign of his own free will due to health conditions. So say the interlocutors of the publication close to the presidential administration. One of them clarifies that the health of the veteran governor (Tuleyev has been heading the region since 1997 and is one of the last governors of the Yeltsin draft who are still in office) deteriorated three months ago, but before that leaks had been avoided.

Another interlocutor clarifies that in last time saw Tuleyev at the President's annual message to the Federal Assembly and the governor moved with the help of a person specially assigned to him. The interlocutors do not yet risk predicting who can replace Tuleyev in his post, where he spent the last 20 years. One way or another, it is obvious that the candidacy of a successor will be coordinated with the outgoing heavyweight.

The experts interviewed note that it is rather difficult to judge the situation in the Kemerovo region: the information field of the region is tightly controlled. A few exotic stories fly to the center. For example, a few years ago Tuleyev established Bigfoot Day and promised a prize of one million rubles for the capture of the Yeti. “The money will be provided by the owners of the mining enterprises,” Tuleyev says in a video posted on YouTube, adding that he has already agreed with local shamans for help.

As an anti-crisis initiative, Tuleyev introduced a special program to provide large needy families with two rabbits and one rabbit free of charge. To get rabbits, a family needs to write an application addressed to the governor. The program has been extended to 2017, earlier thousands of needy families received rabbits and already have offspring, writes IA "Baikal".

In 2011, the author of the text obtained closed opinion polls by the FOM on the ratings of governors, intended for the presidential administration. According to this poll, the ratings of many governors did not even reach 15%, but Tuleyev became the leader of that closed rating: according to the FOM, in the fall of 2011 he was supported by 78% of the population (in Chechnya, the survey was not conducted). The author of the current text then published a note about this. The next day, the press service of Aman Tuleyev issued a press release: "According to closed opinion polls of the FOM, Aman Tuleyev is the most popular Russian governor."

In the latest "Governors' Efficiency Rating", which is periodically published by the Civil Society Development Fund under the leadership of Konstantin Kostin, Tuleyev was ranked 5-6th - after Vladimir Yakushev (Tyumen Region), Dmitry Kobylkin (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), Anatoly Artamonov ( Kaluga region), Rustem Minnikhanov (Tatarstan) and Ramzan Kadyrov (Chechnya).

“The peculiarity of Tuleyev is his ultra-high recognition. Probably, he is one of the five to ten most recognizable governors in the country for the layman. He acts as the patriarch of politics, absorbing the respondents' perception of the optimal combination of the advantages of Soviet power and adaptation to market realities. It is difficult for an average person to understand to what extent this correlates with reality, since the media under Tuleyev are “built up,” says Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the Petersburg Politics Foundation.

the site understood the reasons for Tuleyev's political longevity and his possible political legacy - if the resignation of the 73-year-old governor does take place.

Yeltsin's rival, Putin's partner

Tuleyev's political career began in 1990, when he was elected People's Deputy of the RSFSR, becoming chairman of the Kemerovo Regional Council of People's Deputies. In August 1991, Tuleyev promised GKChP participant Gennady Yanayev to subscribe to every word of the GKChP appeal, and in 1994 he became not only the head of the Kemerovo Legislative Assembly, but also a member of the Federation Council. On July 1, 1997, President Boris Yeltsin appointed Tuleyev as Governor of the Kemerovo Region. In September of the same year, Tuleyev won the gubernatorial elections with a score of 94.5%. In 2001, he was re-elected early and won with a score of 93.5% of the vote. After that, in the 2000s, Tuleyev was reappointed to this post twice, and in 2015 he again took part in the gubernatorial elections and gained 96.6%.

B. Korobeinikov / RIA Novosti

Tuleyev ran three times for the presidency of Russia. In 1991, he won 6.81% of the vote (fourth out of six), in the 1996 presidential elections, he withdrew his candidacy in favor of Gennady Zyuganov on the eve of the first round of voting. In the 2000 elections, Tuleyev won 2.95% of the vote, with almost all of the votes cast in the Kemerovo region, where he overtook Vladimir Putin to take first place.

Tuleyev was an atypical Yeltsin appointee - the people's hero of Kuzbass, the leader of the local opposition, twice Yeltsin's rival in the presidential elections, political analyst Vitaly Ivanov recalls.

“It was strange that Tuleyev agreed to become an appointee governor, because he could just go to the elections and win them, but he chose to come to the region, being appointed by Yeltsin's decree. The secret of his longevity is that until recently he was in good health, and at the same time in the late nineties - early zero he rendered serious political services to the state, taming Kuzbass. He behaved constructively and during the 2000 presidential campaign, he established constructive relations with the oligarchs in the region - in fact, Zhivilo was the only victim. He showed managerial talent, becoming his own both for the people and for big business. He spoke harshly with the oligarchs, but he gave them a lot. With his departure, the “golden age” of Kuzbass will end. In recent years, the economic situation has not been the most favorable for him, but is Tuleyev's fault in this? " - argues Ivanov, describing him as "a very successful politician, one of the best governors over the past twenty years."

Yuri Abramochkin / RIA Novosti

In the 1995 elections, Tuleyev, who collaborated with the communists throughout the 90s, was one of the top three of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Then in the region the Communist Party won more than 60% of the votes. In 1999, Tuleyev was again included in the election list of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, but in the regional elections he supported the Unity bloc. He joined United Russia in 2005.

Tuleev later even sued Zyuganov. In 2008, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation lost court to Tuleyev and had to pay compensation in the amount of 450 thousand rubles for the fact that shortly before that, on the air of the radio station Echo Moskvy, he said that "Tuleyev arranged a pakhanat in the Kemerovo region." In 2011, Tuleyev again sued the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, now - with the regional branch for an article posted on the party's website "Tuleyev harbors pedophiles." The first secretary of the Kemerovo regional committee, ex-deputy of the State Duma Nina Ostanina constantly sues the governor and loses the courts. Now there are only three factions in the Kemerovo Regional Legislative Assembly: the United Russia Party (40 people), the Liberal Democratic Party (1 person) and the SR (1 person). There are no communists there.

In 2016, in the elections to the State Duma in the Kemerovo region, the regional electoral commission announced that the turnout was 86.8% and United Russia won with a result of 77.33%, while the rest of the parties did not gain even 10% of the vote. The regional group of the United Russia, which included the region, was headed by Tuleyev.

Vladimir Rodionov / RIA Novosti

Former head of the territorial department of the internal policy department of the presidential administration, political consultant Andrei Kolyadin told the site that he watched Tuleyev from afar when he himself worked on the election campaign of Vladimir Putin in 2000.

“Tuleyev gave the impression of a rational, negotiable person. In the Department of Internal Policy, he was always treated, and now they are, with great respect, "- said Kolyadin website.

More authoritarian than the Kremlin

All experts describe Tuleyev's political style as prohibitively authoritarian. Tuleyev, on the one hand, is betting on increased provision of social assistance to pensioners and low-income people, who make up the core of his electoral base. At the same time, he has excellent relations with regional and federal FIGs, to whom, being in words a left-wing populist, he creates all the conditions for the realization of business interests.

Experts point out several interesting features... First, Tuleyev uses the top management of FIGs represented in the region to write government programs, says one of the newspaper's interlocutors, who is close to the presidential administration. “In fact, the governor has created a free, intelligent crowdsourcing system for himself,” he says.

As an anti-crisis measure, enterprises present in the region pay taxes in advance, that is, in 2017 - already for 2018, says the source of the publication. This allows us to solve operational tasks, but in the future this pyramid will inevitably lead to a budget crisis, the source adds.

One of the businessmen close to Tuleyev is called Roman Abramovich, who owns a third of the Evraz holding, which, in turn, has numerous business interests in the Kemerovo metallurgical industry (Evrazruda, EvrazEk, Raspadskaya coal mine, Metallenergofinance and many others).

Mikhail Klimentiev / RIA Novosti

Another holding close to Tuleyev is the Siberian Business Union with numerous assets in the field of ferrous metallurgy. One of the co-owners of the company, Vladimir Gridin, was a deputy from the "United Russia" of the fifth and sixth convocations.

The current State Duma deputy Otari Arshba is closely connected with Tuleyev - until 2003 he was vice president of Evrazholding, in 2002 he worked on Tuleyev's election campaign, and from 2003 to 2008 he was chairman of the social council of Evraz S.A. One of the interlocutors of the publication among political strategists says that it was Arshba who largely closed the information flows in the region and played his role extremely successfully: there is almost no negative information about Tuleyev in the region.

“In the 90s, Kuzbass was one of the most active regions of Russia, the chaotization there was higher than the national average, so there was a need for order there earlier,” recalls political analyst Oleg Matveychev. - Tuleyev fulfilled this need in a tougher and more oriental form than Vladimir Putin in the country as a whole. Tuleyev squeezed the opposition and built an impenetrable authoritarian system. At the same time, he provides all possible social assistance to pensioners, they enjoy free travel and all kinds of social benefits in the region. All regional FIGs play by Tuleyev's rules, those who disagree are squeezed out of the region. Social programs implemented by FIGs in the region are branded by Tuleyev, and not by their brands, as is usually the case: everywhere there are posters “Tuleyev built,” “Tuleyev restored”. This is done with the money of the FIG, but is credited to the governor. At the same time, Novokuznetsk is the main industrial city of the region, but money is taken from there and invested in Kemerovo. Tuleyev actually made Kemerovo from scratch a regional capital of the Soviet type, so Novokuznetsk does not like him: In Kemerovo, universities, hospitals, people are forced to go there, "- said political scientist Matveychev.

Political strategist Dmitry Gusev calls Tuleyev "a hero of the early 90s" when he was super popular in the working environment and was considered, along with General Alexander Lebed, one of the possible competitors of Boris Yeltsin. “Yeltsin sent him to Kuzbass, and Tuleyev managed to cope with the region. Being a powerful man, he built the entire system for himself, destroyed the opposition, organized the privatization of many enterprises. Roman Abramovich became one of the businessmen close to him. Tuleyev's management scheme is structured as follows: he blackmails the oligarchs by the fact that the people are behind him, he is really popular, so he requires them to invest in the region and in social programs. In public, he behaves like a populist, but in fact stands guard over the interests of the oligarchs. Observance of this balance enables him to stay in power all these years, ”Gusev said.

Of the major conflicts between Tuleyev and business, experts recall the story of businessman Mikhail Zhivilo, the founder of the Metallurgical Investment Company. In the 2000s, Zhivilo had problems with the Siberian Business Union around the Chernigovets coal mine. Soon, the Olympic champion Alexander Tikhonov was arrested, he was accused of preparing an attempt on the life of the governor. Zhivilo left for France, fearing arrest. Russia demanded his extradition, but the French side refused to do so. In 2005 Zhivilo received the status of a political refugee.

As for political conflicts, one of the main current opponents of Tuleyev is the head of the local Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Nina Ostanina. In addition, Tuleyev had a vivid conflict with the former mayor of Novokuznetsk, Dmitry Martin, who headed the city from 1997 to 2010. In September 2009, on the initiative of Tuleyev, an audit of the “Novokuznetsk management company” was organized, co-owned by the son of the mayor of the city, Maxim Martin. The check revealed significant violations, this fact was later confirmed by the Prosecutor General's Office. In mid-December 2010, a criminal case was opened against Sergei Martin for "abuse of office, which entailed grave consequences." In 2015, Martin was sentenced to 4 years in prison, but was amnesty for the 70th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War.

Sergey Subbotin / RIA Novosti

In 2013, a corps of observers "For Clean Elections" headed by politician Boris Nadezhdin came to the elections for the head of the city of Kemerovo. Observers spent the night of the elections at the police station. As Nadezhdin himself recalled, they were detained for police orientation when they were driving to one of the precincts to deal with the alleged ballot stuffing, but the car was stopped because the police said that it was suitable for orientation in the beatings case. In the morning the observers were released, they left for the airport. The Dozhd TV channel quoted the colonel of the Kemerovo police as saying that the observers had come to Kemerovo to establish their own rules and teach Kemerovo residents to live.

Tuleyev's whole life was in plain sight. Like all leaders of the labor movement, Tuleyev was close with the communists for some time, but then fell out with Zyuganov and won his trial, says the former head of the internal policy department of the presidential administration, head of the Civil Society Development Fund, Konstantin Kostin.

“Tuleyev managed to create a fairly effective economic model, but it has largely exhausted itself and began to falter. He managed to solve many social issues, of all the heavyweight governors, he probably has the highest rating. In previous years, if a visitor got into a taxi and said something bad about Tuleyev, at best he could be dropped off, at worst it could get into a fight. Tuleyev was one of the first governors to develop a system of compensation for victims of emergency situations, since the region is difficult in this regard - accidents happen at mines. Tuleyev worked on this issue 10 years ago and developed a compensation system. He built a model of social responsibility of business, modernized mines, used the economic potential of the region to improve the social situation, ”says Kostin.

Failed resignation

In recent years, rumors about Tuleyev's resignation began to circulate on the political sidelines several times. According to one version, the then first deputy head of the administration, Vyacheslav Volodin, stood up for the change of the Kemerovo governor. Once (in the spring of 2015) there was even a leak from the Kremlin that the decision to resign would be made in the coming days, but contrary to all expectations, this event did not happen. The Tuleyev administration did not escape the attention of the security forces as part of the anti-corruption campaign. In November 2016, Vice Governor Alexander Danilchenko was arrested and accused of extortion of shares in the Razrez Inskoy mine. At the same time, Sergei Kalinkin, head of the Investigation Department of the TFR in the Kemerovo Region, and another vice-governor, Alexei Ivanov, were arrested. Tuleyev stood up for his subordinates, publicly calling them "decent people." It is noteworthy that as a preventive measure, the defendants chose House arrest, and not the usual detention for this kind of cases.

A cleansed political field, accumulated economic problems. The Kemerovo region will not be a gift for Tuleyev's successor, experts agree.

The head of the Political Expert Group, Konstantin Kalachev, recalls that the miners were the main instigators of the events of 1991, Kuzbass was then almost the most troubled and dangerous region, which was eventually able to calm Tuleyev.

Dmitry Astakhov / RIA Novosti

“The authority of Tuleyev in the 90s in the Kemerovo region was practically unlimited. It is not without reason that in 2000, when he was nominated for the presidency, he took first place there. I think Vladimir Putin considers Tuleyev a person inscribed in the history of Russia and the best that remains of the governor's corps of the 90s, Kalachev believes. - Tuleyev's political longevity is ensured not only by the services he rendered to the federal center, but also by Putin's personal assessment of the scale of his personality. I think Putin considers him “the last of the Mohicans”. The time of retirement will be determined by Tuleyev himself. This is the case when being in power prolongs life. I think Tuleyev may resign either because of a very serious illness, when he is physically unable to work anymore, or if he dies in the workplace, "says Kalachev, adding that it will be extremely difficult for the successor of the Kemerovo heavyweight: the system is built for him personally, the region is complex, and no one really wants to continue the "Tuleyevism", including big business.

“Coal enterprises have already transferred taxes to the regional budget for the next year, therefore, after the presidential elections, Kuzbass will face a serious economic crisis, because the money will already be spent,” a website close to the presidential administration reads.

Alexander Kynev, head of regional programs of the Information Policy Development Fund, calls the political regime in Kuzbass "rather authoritarian."

“The territory shows an ultra-high percentage of turnout and voting for power in elections. In the 90s, Aman Tuleyev was obviously very popular, but in recent years analysts have expressed great skepticism about the Kuzbass electoral procedures. The region puts it on a par with the North Caucasus in terms of electoral anomalies, says Kynev. - For example, in a region with a large share of workers, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation does not even overcome the 5% barrier and does not even take second or third place in the elections. In the region, the authorities are so authoritarian that it is impossible even to assess the real realities. There is practically no significant opposition, extremely difficult conditions have been created for NGOs and independent media. There is an assumption that the real support of the governor has decreased, and Tuleyev's replacement looks inevitable, if not even now, then in the foreseeable future. In my opinion, subsequently, it will be extremely difficult to maintain tight control over the region, and the Kemerovo Region will become one of the most problematic regions of the country. There is such a phenomenon as post-authoritarian syndrome, when after the departure of an authoritarian leader, the situation becomes unstable and chaotic. I think that soon the situation when Kuzbass was a tacit stronghold of the current government will remain in the past, ”says Kynev.

Kemerovo doctors told reporters that the governor of the region, Aman Tuleyev, seeks to take up his direct duties as soon as possible. And only through the efforts of doctors it is possible to keep the policy in the hospital.

73-year-old Aman Tuleyev, as it became known recently, underwent spinal surgery. At his age, it would be more correct to calmly rehabilitate, but for some reason he is impatient to go to work. This could be attributed to merciless patriotism. But there is a feeling that the aged governor simply wants to show the Kremlin that he can still manage a strategic region that has been experiencing growing economic problems in recent years.

Old sick man

Rumors that Aman Tuleyev may soon leave his post appear regularly, once a year, or even more often. Moreover, very authoritative business media write about this, and each time they refer to very serious sources, including in the Presidential Administration. But each time the rumors remain just rumors, and Aman Tuleyev comments on them with the general meaning of "you will not wait". And even the arrests of top officials of Kuzbass that thundered last year, which the governor completely blamed on the intrigues of enemies, could not shake his position. But this time everything is much more serious. Aman Tuleyev fell ill and underwent a serious, hours-long operation.

In May, the head of the Kemerovo region went on a 10-day vacation. But at the end he did not return. The region, like a jacuzzi, was filled with raging rumors. It was even rumored that the governor had already died, the authorities were simply hiding this information. The media reported that due to illness, Aman Tuleyev asked the Kremlin for an early resignation. However, with one condition. It is psychologically important for him that the term of governorship is 20 years, and this honorable date will only be in July. However, Moscow, allegedly, has not yet made a decision to change the governor of Kuzbass. Finally, Tuleyev's deputy Valery Tsoi called a press conference, at which he announced that Aman Gumirovich had a successful spinal operation and would return to work after rehabilitation. But the Kuzbass administration did not achieve its goal, because the public did not calm down.

What is good for the governor is good for the German

After that press conference, local journalists unearthed that the operation had not gone smoothly at all. Aman Tuleyev spent 9 hours under anesthesia and fell into a coma, from which the doctors managed to get him out. Such things do not pass without leaving a trace for any person, and even more so for the elderly. Therefore, despite the assurances that the governor is "eager to fight," his health raises very serious concerns, and no one can guarantee that the rehabilitation will be successful. Note that this information appeared not somewhere, but in the Kuzbass media. The fact is startling in itself. Try to read the Kemerovo press, there usually in every publication there is love and respect for Aman Gumirovich, not a single superfluous word will slip through. Any Kuzbass TV journalist over a glass of vodka will tell you that under pain of dismissal it is forbidden to film and show on TV the bald spot on the governor's head, which he carefully hides. And then such dangerous information appears in the media ...

There is one more important detail worth noting. Tuleyev's operation was carried out in Germany. And this fact also raises bewildered thoughts: how can it be, does a socially oriented governor do not trust local medicine? Is the level of medical care in Kuzbass not suitable for an official? However, an explanation was soon given. It turns out that the head of the region trusted the German Aesculapians so as not to place the responsibility on the Kuzbass doctors. Just think about it! What, the Kemerovo surgeons will shake their hands if they have to operate on Aman Tuleyev himself? Is he the father of the Kuzbass people? Or maybe it’s something else - what if an unsuccessful operation could become a catalyst for something like the “doctors' case”? The eastern character of the Kuzbass ruler makes it possible to build such versions.

Governor's Back Feather

From the point of view of psychology, one can try to explain why Aman Tuleyev, as the media assure, is eager to work. To do this, let us recall why the head of Kuzbass managed to stay afloat for so long, successfully bypassing the Kremlin's disgrace. Tuleyev is a symbol of stability. The country's leadership remembers well the miners' riots of the 1980s and 90s. Under Aman Gumirovich, one of the most explosive regions calmed down. Here, both the charisma of the governor himself and the prices for coal, which rose in the 2000s, played a role. Add to this the complete loyalty of Tuleyev. Few remember that he was once a communist and an ardent critic of the government. But for many years this official has been completely devoted to the Moscow establishment. It would seem that you can safely lie down in the hospital. Perhaps this would even add political points to him: look, I am sick here and do not go to work, and the field, which I have wisely lead for almost 20 years, continues to develop successfully!

But no, Aman Tuleyev cannot do that. He does not just manage the strategic region, which the year before last, with almost 100% of the result, chose him to the post. He created a cult of himself there. Everything that is good in Kuzbass is called "provincial". Market or shop with low prices- of course "provincial". The sports center, which lives on state money, is naturally a "provincial" one. And even a simple bus, given by the local authorities to some orphanage - and that, God forgive me, is "provincial". By the way, about the higher powers. The other day Kuzbass people, as journalists write, prayed for the governor's health. Well, how can the creator of such an ecosystem leave it for any long time ?!

Besides, it is important to show the center that no disease can stop such a human being. Stability stability, but everyone understands that sooner or later Tuleyev will have to leave his post. And if there is a reason to talk about poor health, then not very pleasant questions may arise. They will raise the statistics and ask: why is the living standard of the population suddenly decreasing in the region under the strict guidance of Aman Tuleyev? And why, suddenly, the debt of Kuzbass is growing at a tremendous pace? And for what reasons does he have a budget deficit?

In general, what are we talking about - some depressed territory or a rich Siberian industrial region, where the bulk of Russian coal is mined, and the Kuznetsk Metallurgical Combine is proudly towering? And questions like the feathers from the famous oriental parable can easily break a camel's back.

The permanent governor of the Kemerovo region is experiencing health problems and has actually ceased to govern the region.

The governor of Kuzbass, Aman Tuleyev, is seriously ill and it is not clear whether he will be able to start work. Health problems began in March this year, when the governor underwent heart surgery at the regional cardiology center in Kemerovo, writes anonymous columnist Nezygar.

According to his sources, the operation was not entirely successful. In April, Tuleyev tried to return to work, but he could not do it fully. The governor could hardly stand 2-3 hours of work. Since April, all public events with Tuleyev's participation have been canceled.

On May 22, Tuleyev officially went on vacation and went to Germany for treatment, where he underwent a second operation. By June 1, the governor did not return to Kemerovo. Soon, on rumors of Tuleyev's death, the information was officially spread that he returned by charter on June 11 and would start work on June 19. But no one confirmed the return of the governor and they say that Tuleyev is still in a German clinic.

Meanwhile, the regional administration officially announced that on June 19 Tuleyev extended his vacation for an indefinite period. Officially, acting governor Vladimir Chernov.

Vyacheslav Volodin has made several attempts since 2014 to dismiss Governor Tuleyev. It is said that in March 2015, an agreement was reached between the Kremlin and Tuleyev to leave the governor in April 2016.

In exchange, Tuleyev was promised a senatorial position. There was no clear position regarding the successor - some suggested that Tuleyev name his successor himself (the example of Shaimiev), others believed that the governor would not have any successor.

Vyacheslav Volodin and United Russia seriously spoiled the situation by actively lobbying for the governors of Sergei Neverov, who arouses Tuleyev's persistent hostility.

The governor of Kuzbass himself put on his first deputy Maksim Makin, who was associated with the governor's family.

Mayor of Novokuznetsk Sergey Kuznetsov and adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Anton Kobyakov were also named as alternative candidates.

However, by April 2016, Tuleyev withdrew from the negotiation process, having managed to convince Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and the head of the presidential administration Sergei Ivanov that he could control the situation and was able to conduct a high-quality campaign in the State Duma. And the Kremlin has not been able to decide on the candidacy of the future governor.

In the fall of 2016, Tuleyev experienced pressure, called coercion to resign. In September 2016, under the threat of a criminal case, Tuleev's successor, Deputy Governor Maxim Makin, was dismissed. The resignation took place following a comprehensive check by the security forces of the activities of Makin and his business structure Teploenergo.

In November 2016, a special group of employees of the "M" department of the FSB and the Main Investigative Committee of the Investigative Committee arrested the head of the Kuzbass Investigative Committee Kalinkin and his subordinates, vice-governors Danilchenko and Ivanov, and employees of the administration.

In addition, the FSB has questions about the former adviser to the governor, Jalol Khaidarov, the former owner of the Kachkanarsky GOK. Khaidarov was accused of drug trafficking, connections with organized crime groups, financing of Islamic cells.

They say that the arrests and the cleansing of the encirclement hit Tuleyev's health hard. The 73-year-old governor began to lose pace and confidence, forced to solve the problem of self-preservation, turning into a greatly weakened figure.

The vacation of the governor of Kuzbass, which was announced on May 22, continues. So far, there is no information that Aman Tuleyev, who promised to return on June 1, reappeared at his workplace. People say that the head of the region has already been hospitalized and is in Germany in a “grave stable condition”. In the echelons of power, they are seriously discussing options for candidates who can lead Kuzbass in the event of Tuleyev's resignation due to incapacity. The name of the mayor of Nizhny Tagil, Sergei Nosov, who once headed the West Siberian Metallurgical Plant, and has now become an ambitious politician, sounds more often than others. For details, see the article by FederalPress.

Governor Aman Tuleyev has been rumors about health problems for a long time, but the active phase began in the spring. In early March, there were messages on the portal “ Open city»About the possible hospitalization of Tuleyev in a cardiological center or a regional clinical hospital. This information was not officially confirmed. Alexey Dorongov, acting head of the main department for the work of the media, denied both "hospitalization" and "operation".

The governor of the Kemerovo region returned to work in mid-March, but was not active in public, mainly appearing in the stories of the STRC Kuzbass TV channel at the head of the table at meetings. The second wave of information about the impending deterioration of the governor emerged in mid-May. It was said that Tuleyev went on a charter to Germany for treatment and allegedly recovering from surgery. Then, on May 23, the last official information appeared in the Kuzbass media regarding the governor Aman Tuleyev. It said that Tuleyev took leave until June 1, and the duties of the "acting" handed over to the first vice-governor Vladimir Chernov.

However, neither on June 1, nor in the following days, the governor of the Kemerovo region did not go to work. He was simply not mentioned in the official press releases in June. On June 5, FederalPress obtained unofficial information. A source close to the upper echelons of the Kemerovo region administration spoke about the deteriorating health of the governor, as well as about his "grave stable condition." This "rumor" was subsequently denied once again by the head office for work with the media. By the time this text was published, Dorongov's department had not been able to promptly respond to a request from a FederalPress correspondent about Aman Tuleyev's future work plans.

The circle is closed

Meanwhile, there are three weeks left before the kind of anniversary. July 1, 1997 by decree of the then President of Russia Boris Yeltsin Aman Tuleyev was appointed governor of the Kemerovo region instead of Mikhail Kislyuk, which according to the official wording "was removed from office by the head of state in connection with the transfer to another job." That castling was a necessary measure. The region was teetering on the brink of a crisis, the budget had a colossal deficit, and salaries had not been paid for months. Kislyuk himself many years later in an interview with reporters called his resignation part of the deal between the presidential administration and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. “For a certain loyalty, the Communists, and Tuleyev was then the second person in the Communist Party, asked the Kemerovo Region,” Kislyuk said in 2014. - They gave the region, and me to Moscow. Everything changer. This is politics. "

Curiously, in the event of the possible resignation of Tuleyev due to incapacity, the Kemerovo Region will also go to the next governor with a difficult legacy. “Kuzbass is a promising region with proper and competent management, but at the moment it is a“ big black pit ”, in which coal is mainly dug, and money, in most cases, goes to offshore headquarters of the "All-Russian People's Front" in the Kemerovo region Maxim Uchvatov... - The number of inhabitants has decreased over 20 years by several hundred thousand people and continues to fall. Despite the adopted deficit-free budget, we see how the state debt of the Kemerovo region is growing at a record and is one of the highest in the country. As an additional burden, the new head of the region will get a bloated administrative apparatus that needs to be optimized. The region must be brought out of the crisis and decline, and this is a very large and serious work that will take more than one year. "

The raw material issue, tied to the export of coal and the dependence of the regional budget on world energy prices, will be the main challenge for Tuleyev's successor. “Now the price situation is not the best. Considering that Kuzbass sits tightly on coal, the new governor will have to, first of all, build contacts with coal miners, - a political scientist from Novokuznetsk told FederalPress Andrey Polukhin... "I am confident that Moscow will give carte blanche for any transformations, including for the candidate to lead his own team."

The last of the Mohicans

None of the interviewed experts doubts that changes will come to the Kemerovo region together with a possible new governor. Irkutsk political scientist Alexey Petrov believes that under the new leader, Kuzbass "has a chance to become a more democratic region and engage in party building." “If we judge by informational openness, the development of the media and civic initiatives, then Tuleyev was stuck somewhere in the last century,” Petrov said.

The expert of the Moscow Center for Political Analysis is sure of the destruction of the system built by Tuleyev Andrey Tikhonov, who noted that "the inheritance will haunt the successor for a long time." "In any case, Tuleyev's departure now is not as incredible as it was several years ago," Tikhonov said in an interview with FederalPress. - Recently, the role of the governor's corps has significantly decreased, so veterans like Tuleyev look somewhat archaic. His departure is only a matter of time and health problems can play a decisive role in this process. In my opinion, the state of health is not the most common reason for the resignation of governors. Increasingly, they leave their post in handcuffs. But Tuleyev's case is unique and his honorable retirement is quite expected. "

Unlike the Kemerovo Region, Tuleyev's departure from the scene on the scale of the Siberian Federal District will not be so significant. For example, for Krasnoyarsk, Tuleyev's resignation will do nothing for the local political alignment. “Our regions have no special intersections,” said a political expert from Krasnoyarsk. Alexander Chernyavsky... - It was a few years ago, Aman Tuleyev was a symbolic figure in the speeches of the Krasnoyarsk opposition, which cited the Kuzbass governor as an example for local bosses. They liked the social protection of workers, and the policy of a "firm hand", and the protection of the interests of Kuzbass at the federal level. Recently, such adoration has faded. "

Heir to the "red directors"

It is logical that in connection with the possible resignation of Aman Tuleyev, the question of a successor becomes important. Recently, there have been many possible successors to Aman Tuleyev as governor. “A native of the power structures would be quite suitable for Kuzbass,” Andrei Tikhonov believes. - And in order to maintain at least some kind of stability, it will be necessary to attract the Varangians according to the “latest fashion”.

Various sources named the Secretary of the General Council of the United Russia party, Sergei Neverov, and the current governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Viktor Tolokonsky, and even the Russian businessman Sergei Matvienko. But the surname of Sergei Nosov, the current mayor of Nizhny Tagil, is most often mentioned.

Thus, the head of the Ural branch of the Civil Society Development Fund Anatoly Gagarin believes that the appointment of Nosov as “acting governor of the Kemerovo region ”- more than a rumor. “He is a popular, charismatic and confident politician,” Gagarin is sure. - During the years of his mayor's office, he managed to build good relations with all the players in the political arena Sverdlovsk region... Even his detractors acknowledge Nosov's political weight. He is a part of the presidential administration, he has a certain influence there. "

Moreover, for Kuzbass, Sergei Nosov is also suitable for his ability to work with the electorate. “The people love him for his directness and impulsiveness, and ambition,” said the head of the Ural branch of the Civil Society Development Fund. - In the mayors, he stayed too long. In addition, for so many years he worked in the structure of EVRAZ and even managed to mark the year of leadership at the West Siberian Metallurgical Plant. Even in spirit, he is the kind of person the working-class region needs. The appointment of the real heir to the era of “red directors” will be within the framework of the logic of actions of the presidential administration, where more and more rely on the young and energetic ”.

However, Nosov also has a certain drawback - the absence of his own team, which he could invite to work in Kuzbass. “This is his big drawback: Nosov still has an authoritarian management style, which makes him related to Tuleyev, but at the same time can negatively affect the leadership. He simply does not have people on a par with him, only banal deputies, ”says Anatoly Gagarin.

Silence is not gold

In the Kemerovo region itself, during the years of Tuleyev's governorship, the institution of successors did not take shape. There are probably only two names in this category. But if Valentin Mazikin, the former first vice-governor has long been on a well-deserved retirement, then Dmitry Islamov, the current deputy of the State Duma of the Kemerovo region, was in good standing for a long time in Tuleyev's team. In particular, Islamov, being the vice-governor for economy and regional development, was engaged in the development of the theme of single-industry towns, the creation of territories of advanced socio-economic development, and with his direct participation, a socio-economic strategy for the development of the region until 2025 was developed. But not all experts assess Dmitry Islamov's authority in a positive way. “It seems to me that no one will accept him as a successor,” says Maxim Uchvatov. "This is a man of Tuleyev's team, and the whole region is tired of his team, people feel sick, business is running at long strides, the profit tax has fallen by a record in the five-year period."

It is not yet possible to predict unambiguously what the federal center will undertake in the near future. In elections at all levels, the Kemerovo Region consistently provides a high percentage of votes for candidates in single-mandate circles or United Russia party lists. On a national scale, Tuleyev's political authority is very high, who certainly has personal agreements with the presidential administration. Therefore, the scenario is not excluded that Moscow will wait until the last with possible successors, so as not to violate the current tacit agreement with Tuleyev. This development of events is also supported by the lack of reaction of the federal center to the arrests of high-ranking regional officials directly or indirectly connected with the Kemerovo region.

There are other explanations for Moscow's silence regarding Governor Tuleyev's absence from his office. “There is unofficial information that the presidential administration is testing and interviewing potential candidates,” says Andrei Polukhin. "But they have not yet come to a common decision on who can replace Tuleyev."

However, Aman Gumirovich is still absent from his workplace. “If there are no health problems, then the governor of Kuzbass could debunk the rumors by appearing in public,” believes the director of the NPR Group consulting agency. Dmitry Fetisov... "Without refuting the false rumors, Tuleyev will not get out of this story, as befits a governor, and his further fate will have to be decided promptly."

In medical circles, he could not clarify whether the policy is planning any operation in the Central Clinical Hospital of the Administrative Department of the President of Russia.

“Tuleyev underwent surgery in a clinic in Germany. Maybe the doctors were unable to do something, ”added the doctors.

In turn, the press service of the Kemerovo region administration reported that Tuleyev feels well, his condition is stable.

“Today the governor's condition is stable, he feels well. The rehabilitation process is under the supervision of Minister Veronica personally, ”said a spokesman for the press service.

He added that the decision to transfer Tuleyev to Moscow was made on the initiative of Skvortsova after a video conference. The press service explained that the governor went through all the procedures planned by the Kuzbass doctors, including "difficult and painful."

On the morning of June 22, a press conference was held, the main issue of which was the state of Tuleev's health. On the eve it became known that the head of Kuzbass underwent spinal surgery, which gave rise to many rumors about whether he would continue to act as head of the Kemerovo administration.

There were publications in the press that Tuleyev may not leave his vacation and resign. Moreover, it was reported that the Kremlin allegedly agreed with this development of events. However, and.about. The head of the main department for work with the media of the administration of the Kemerovo region said that Tuleyev did not write a letter of resignation and would return to work after being discharged from the hospital.

"He is undergoing a rehabilitation course, after which he will return to work," the official said at a press conference.

According to Valery Tsoi, Deputy Governor for Health, Tuleev underwent an operation in Germany. It lasted about nine hours. According to its results, complications appeared in the form of pneumonia, which was subsequently cured. He added that it is too early to talk about the exact terms of rehabilitation, since everything is “individual”.

"Aman Tuleyev did not have a heart valve changed, and there were no amputations or other similar diseases that are rumored about," Tsoi said.

Choi also clarified that the treatment in Germany was the choice of the governor himself.

“Germany is Tuleyev's choice, but this is not distrust of local specialists. This choice is based on several aspects, ”he said.

According to Tsoi, if an operation is carried out in the Kemerovo region, then the hospital staff "has a great moral responsibility" and "great interest from the public."

“It is difficult to abstract here, but there he is an ordinary patient,” the deputy governor explained.

On July 1, Tuleyev was taken to Moscow by plane for rehabilitation after spinal surgery. The head of Kuzbass was brought to the airfield on a stretcher and taken aboard an aircraft belonging to the Ministry of Emergencies.

This aircraft is equipped with facilities for transporting passengers in critical condition. From the Moscow airport Tuleyev was taken to one of the hospitals by employees of the All-Russian Center for Disaster Medicine "Zashchita".

At the medical facility, the governor's health was monitored almost around the clock and a number of procedures were prescribed to help him recover from spinal surgery.

Earlier, a deputy from the Kemerovo region said that Tuleyev monitors the situation in the region - he is constantly informed about this by phone.

Tuleyev was prescribed surgery due to a problem with intervertebral discs back in October 2016, but due to his busy work schedule, he postponed it for seven months and combined it with official leave.

They began to read Tuleyev's resignation in connection with the prolonged vacation. The governor asked the federal authorities to give him the opportunity to serve as governor for exactly 20 years, until July 1 of this year, and the Kremlin allegedly made a concession to the head of Kuzbass.