The transformation of the economy is accompanied by the transition from transnational integration to transcontinental integration, which manifests itself for the world aircraft market in the emergence of prerequisites for the disappearance of such concepts as "American / European / Russian aircraft industry": the capacities of the Eastern European aircraft industry are used in the production of American aircraft; the Chinese aircraft manufacturer AVIC cooperates with the European concern Airbus and the American corporation General Electric, etc. Any attempt to isolate oneself within the framework of a national scale has no prospects today. This determines the primary importance of the influence of global factors on the development of an individual company. Therefore, the modern world market of civil aircraft construction, on the one hand, reflects the main global economic trends of today, but on the other hand, it has its own specific development.
Trends in the development of world aircraft construction are simultaneously highlighted in the studies of aircraft manufacturing corporations that have their own research centers, and in research conducted by scientists as part of their activities in scientific institutions. Among the main studies that form the basis of the strategies of aircraft corporations are "Global Market Forecast" from Airbus, "Current Market Outlook 20122031" from Boeing, "Market Forecast" from Bombardier, Worldwide Market Forecast 2014-2033 from Japan Aircraft Development Corporation and some other. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also regularly publishes its own research (eg "Airplane Outlook"). Partially based on such forecasts, the prospects of aircraft construction in the scientific research of J. Wenswin and A. Wells are highlighted. Sokolova, M.V. Boykova, S.D. Gavrilov and NA. Gavrilichova A. Khatypova and T.T. Khalilov, T. Boetsha, T. Viger and A. Vitmer, Y. Prikhodko and other authors.
First of all, in the available studies, the transformation of the market structure of the aircraft industry is noted and, accordingly, the strategies of the leading market agents are analyzed. However, at the same time, separate features characterizing changes in aircraft construction are highlighted, and the available forecasts for the development of the aircraft market are based mainly on forecasting the demand for aircraft and the study of factors influencing it, and do not take into account the general direction of socio-economic development as a whole. That is, we can talk about the absence of an integrated approach when analyzing the current state and changes in the industry, which significantly reduces the reliability and completeness of forecasts. Taking this into account, there is a need to systematize individual manifestations and form a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft market. At the same time, from our point of view, the formation of a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft industry market provides for (Figure 3.4):
firstly, analysis of the structure of the world aircraft market, definition of segmentation criteria and main market agents, generalization of the main trends;
secondly, the analysis of external factors affecting the development of aircraft construction in terms of quantitative and qualitative parameters;
thirdly, the analysis of the behavior of market actors, determining the ways of organizing a business inherent in market leaders.
Figure 3.4. v Objectives of researching changes in the global aircraft market
Aircraft market segments and structure
The modern structure of the aircraft construction market is of a matrix nature: at the same time, there is a distribution, on the one hand, into two sectors - the production of final products and consumer services (spare parts, components, services), on the other hand, each of these sectors is divided into sectors of civilian and military products (Figure 3.5).
There are several companies on the military aircraft market: Boeing - approximately 22% in the global military aircraft industry in 2011, Lockheed Martin - 21%, Northrop Grumman - 11% (the combined share of US companies in the global military aircraft industry is 54%), Eurofighter - about 11%, EADS - 10%, Dassault - 4% (the aggregate share of European Union companies in the global military aircraft industry is 25%), the share of Russian companies is 20.6%. At the same time, the creation of a common Anglo-Saxon transatlantic defense market with a powerful diffusion of the military-industrial complexes of countries is observed, and on the territory of the European Union - the formation of a single defense market within the countries that are part of it.
Figure 3.5. v
Among the specific trends in the development of the military aircraft market, the following can be noted:
In developing countries, instead of buying new military aircraft, there is an increase in demand for the modernization of existing weapons with the provision of appropriate operational support;
Economically developed countries get rid of technically obsolete aircraft, stimulating its sale by transferring rights to licensed production, assistance in establishing service infrastructure;
The formation of demand for military aircraft depends on the political and economic climate on the planet and strategic relations between countries.
The biggest obstacle to the analysis of the military aircraft market is political bias, which manifests itself in the secrecy or lack of reliable information about the characteristics of the latest technology and agreements have been concluded. Taking into account these factors, the ratio of the civil and military aircraft market (the total share of the military aircraft industry is about 40% of the global aircraft industry, and about 20% in the final product), as well as the trend of borrowing civilian and military aircraft technologies, we focus on researching the civilian market. aircraft industry in the world.
At the same time, in the civil aircraft industry, the final output is distributed between aircraft and helicopters as 88-90% / 12-10% in favor of aircraft. Therefore, we will focus the analysis of trends in the aircraft industry on the example of the civil aircraft market and will carry it out through the stages shown in Figure 3.6.
Figure 3.6. v
In order to characterize the world market of civil aircraft industry, given the significant differentiation of aviation technology, it is necessary to consider the criteria for its segmentation.
Most often, the civil aircraft market, depending on the type of fuselage and flight range, is divided into the following segments: the market for medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft, the market for medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft, the market for regional and the market for local aircraft (Appendix B).
This type of market segmentation is rather arbitrary and can be modified in different studies - in addition, smaller segments are distinguished or a more enlarged hem is used.
Also, three criteria are used for segmenting the aviation market: the type of aircraft power plant (turboprop, jet), the intended purpose of the aircraft (passenger, transport) and passenger or cargo capacity. Therefore, in order to form a more holistic picture of the aircraft market, in the future, for market analysis, we will use mixed segmentation, presented in Appendix D.
The development of segments of the civil aircraft market is associated with the range of transportation, therefore, we will characterize the distribution of world passenger traffic by type of aircraft and flight range (see Figure 3.7). The main passenger traffic falls on narrow-body aircraft, which operate on routes from 500 to 4500 km, reaching the ASK indicator (Available Seat Kilometers - passenger seat-kilometer) in the amount of 300 to 750 million passenger seat-kilometers on lines from 1000 to 3500 km. Turboprop aircraft mainly operate on routes up to 1,500 km, the same length is the main one for regional aircraft - on routes up to 1,500 km, passenger traffic is more than 100 million passenger seats-kilometer. Passenger traffic on lines from 4000 km and more is carried out mainly by wide-body aircraft. It should be noted that routes up to 4500 km account for about 65% passenger transportation.
Figure 3.7. v
In terms of passenger capacity with a range of up to 1000 km, the most common are airliners with a capacity of 120-169 seats, from 1001 to 2000 km - 120-169 and 170-229 seats, from 2001 to 4500 km - 120169, 170-229, 230-309 and 310-399 seats, more than 4500 km - 230-309, 310-399, 400-499 and 500-800 seats (Figure 3.8).
Figure 3.8. in (built from data)
The structure of the fleet of jet passenger aircraft in 2013 is shown in Fig. 3.9-10, from which it can be seen that the largest share in the composition of aircraft is made up with a significant predominance of aircraft with a capacity of 120-169 seats (51.22%), in second place are aircraft with a capacity 60-99 places (19.39%).
Analysis of the dynamics of the fleet of turboprop passenger aircraft in the world for 2000-2013. (Figure 3.11) demonstrates a general decline in the operation of turboprop passenger aircraft, which mostly affects the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats (by almost 30% in 2013 compared to 2000) and is slightly offset by an increase in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 places (almost 12% in 2013 in relation to 2000).
Figure 3.9. in (built from data)
Figure 3.10. in (built from data)
Figure 3.11. in (built from data)
This is due to the appearance in the second half of the 1990s and early 2000s. jets with less than 50 seats, which are more economical than the corresponding turboprop aircraft. As a result, the structure of the market for turboprop passenger aircraft in 2013 (see Figure 3.12) consists of three segments: aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats -51.66% (68.62% in 2000), 40-59 seats - 22.56% (23.9 in 2000), more than 60 places - 25.79% (7.49% in 2000).
Figure 3.12. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the distribution of types of airliners in the regional context (Figure 3.13 and Figure 3.14).
Figure 3.13. in (built from data)
As can be seen from Fig. 3.13 and the data in Appendix D, regional jet aircraft most common in North America (53.62% of the total number of regional jets) and Europe (16.91%). Narrow-body jets are in greatest demand in the Asia-Pacific region (29.11% of the total number of narrow-body jets), North America (28.3%), and Europe (22.8%). Wide-body jets are more commonly used for transportation in the Asia-Pacific region (37.18% of the total number of wide-body jets), Europe (20.99%), North America (16.66%).
Turboprop passenger aircraft(data in Fig. 3.14 and Appendix E) in general, the most exploited in the Asia-Pacific region (25.44% of the total number of turboprop aircraft). At the same time, North America (30.68% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats) and the Asia-Pacific region (22.61%) are the leaders in the local transportation market, in the regional market in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats. The Pacific region (23.92% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats) and the CIS countries (22.15%), in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats - the Asia-Pacific region (32.45% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats), Europe (26.8%) and North America (16.61%). To explain this proliferation of jet and turboprop passenger aircraft, it is necessary to analyze the economic and other specifics of the regions of the world.
Figure 3.14. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the development trends of the jet cargo aircraft market (Figure 3.15).
Between 2000 and 2013, the total number of jet freighters decreased by 4.5% and the structure of this market changed. Thus, in 2000, 39.67% of the total were narrow-body cargo aircraft and 40.01% of medium wide-body cargo aircraft. After a sharp increase in the use of narrow-body cargo aircraft in 2005 to 50.28% of the total in 2013, a proportional structure of the market was established (approximately 33% for each segment).
Figure 3.15. in (built from data)
In addition to the economic factors that determine the use of cargo aircraft, it is necessary to take into account the existing practice of converting passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft. So, about 50% of the cargo aircraft operating in the world today were converted into cargo aircraft. Conversion of passenger aircraft begins after 10 years of operation, since the peak in use of passenger aircraft is 15 years. After conversion, up to the moment of scrapping, the converted cargo aircraft have been operating for about 25 years. Since 2003, there has been a downward trend in conversion practice (Figure 3.16).
Figure 3.16. in (built from data)
In a regional context, analysis of the operation of cargo aircraft in 2012 (Figure 3.17) shows that the largest share of the use of cargo aircraft falls on three regions: Asia-Pacific (29%), Europe (26%) and North America (25%) ...
Figure 3.17. in (built from data)
Let's compare in the regional context the movement of freight and passenger traffic. As Figure 3.18 shows, the distribution of cargo and passenger aircraft across the world is similar, suggesting that the same factors will affect these markets.
Figure 3.18. in (built from data)
Let us summarize the analysis of the development of aircraft market segments (final products) by simultaneously determining the distribution of segments by manufacturing company and aircraft type (Figure 3.19).
At present, two conglomerates Boeing (CELA) and Airbus S. A. S. (European Union) compete on the mainline airliners market (25.2% of the global aircraft manufacturing market), with a combined market share of more than 90%; in the regional aircraft market - Bombardier (Canada) and Embraer (Brazil) with a combined market share of about 78%. The production of the CIS countries, including Ukraine, reaches about 2% of civil aircraft.
Figure 3.19. c (final products 2010-2011 according to data)
Thus, the modern world fleet of civil aircraft consists of jet and turboprop aircraft, which has a wide segmentation. Each type of aircraft, due to its technical and economic characteristics, has its own market niche and a certain competition zone (flight range up to 1000 km; passenger capacity 60-99 seats). In general, the most common in 2013 are jet aircraft. Turboprop aircraft are gradually being decommissioned due to aging and are not replaced in an appropriate number by new ones, but it is impossible to talk about the decline of this market segment. Based on the results of the analysis of aircraft operation in a regional context, it is impossible to unambiguously determine the prevalence of one or another type of aircraft, therefore, an explanation of the general dynamics and distribution of traffic in the regions of the world requires the study of factors influencing the development of the aircraft market. At the same time, it should be noted the uneven development of the aircraft industry across the regions.
10
10th place - Pakistan
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Royal Pakistani Air Force was formed in 1947. The Pakistani Air Force actively participated in the wars with India, and during the Afghan war intercepted Soviet and Afghan aircraft that invaded air space country. Pakistan buys aircraft of mainly American and Chinese production. The Air Force has 65,000 soldiers and officers (including 3,000 pilots). The state has about 955 combat, transport and training aircraft.
9
9th place - Turkey
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Turkish Air Force was founded in 1911. By 1940, Turkey had the largest air forces in the Middle East and the Balkan Peninsula. The Turkish Air Force participated in the invasion of Cyprus (1974) and military operations in the Balkans in the 1990s, and is also periodically involved in military operations within the country. The number of personnel is about 60,000 people. The development of its own fifth generation fighter TF-X is underway.
8
8th place - Egypt
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Egyptian Air Force was created on November 2, 1930 by the decree of King Fuad I. Egyptian aviation took an active part in the Arab-Israeli wars. In the 1950s-1970s, the armament consisted mainly of Soviet-made aircraft. After the severance of relations with the USSR, Egypt began to buy aircraft from the USA and France. The number of troops is about 40 thousand people.
7
7th place - France
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersCreated as part of the French army in 1910. The French Air Force actively participated in the First and Second World Wars. Following the German occupation of the country in 1940, the national air force split into the Vichy Air Force and the Free French Air Force. The main manufacturer of aviation equipment is Dassault Aviation. She is engaged not only in the creation of military types of aircraft, but also regional and business class. The second largest Airbus company S.A.S manufactures cargo, military transport and passenger vehicles.
6
6th place - South Korea
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe main weapons are American-made aircraft and helicopters, but the government South Korea significant efforts are being made to organize the production of their military equipment and reduce military-economic dependence on the United States. There is also a certain amount of Russian, British, Spanish and Indonesian aircraft in service. In terms of the number of aviation equipment and the number of personnel, the South Korean Air Force is more than twice inferior to the North, but it is armed with more modern technology, and the average flight time of pilots is higher. Since 1997, female cadets have been enrolled in the Air Force Academy. The number of the composition is about 65 thousand people.
5
5th place - Japan
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Japan Air Self-Defense Force was established in 1954. Until the end of World War II, aviation was directly subordinate to the imperial army and navy of Japan. She was not singled out as a separate type of troops. After the Second World War, during the formation of new armed forces The Japanese Air Self-Defense Forces were formed, which were armed with aircraft manufactured by the United States. After the US refused to sell the fifth-generation F-22 fighter to Japan in 2007, the Japanese government decided to build the Mitsubishi ATD-X, its own fifth-generation aircraft. On the this moment the number of personnel is 47 123 people.
4
4th place - India
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe Indian Air Force was created on October 8, 1932, and the first squadron appeared in their composition on April 1, 1933. They played an important role in the fighting on the Burmese front during World War II. In 1945-1950, the Indian Air Force wore the prefix "royal". Indian aviation took an active part in the wars with Pakistan, as well as in a number of smaller operations and conflicts. For 2017, the number of personnel is 127,000 people.
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3rd place - China
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersThe PLA Air Force was established on November 11, 1949, following the victory of the Chinese Communist Party in the civil war. The Soviet Union played an important role in their creation and armament. Since the mid-1950s, the production of Soviet aircraft began at Chinese factories. The "Great Leap Forward", the severance of relations with the USSR and the "Cultural Revolution" caused serious damage to the Chinese Air Force. Despite this, the development of its own combat aircraft began in the 1960s. After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, China began modernizing its Air Force, purchasing multifunctional Su-30 fighters from Russia and mastering the licensed production of Su-27 fighters. Later, China canceled the contract for the supply of Russian fighters and began to produce its own aircraft based on the acquired know-how. The number of personnel is 330,000 people.
2
2nd place - Russia
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersSince 1998, they have been a new type of the Russian Armed Forces, formed as a result of the unification of the Air Force (Air Force) and the Air Defense Forces (Air Defense). The basis of the combat strength of the Air Force is formed by air bases and brigades of aerospace defense forces. During the war years, 44,093 pilots were trained. Killed in battles 27,600: 11,874 fighter pilots, 7,837 attack pilots, 6,613 bomber crew members, 587 reconnaissance pilots and 689 auxiliary pilots. After the collapse of the USSR in December 1991, the USSR Air Force was divided between Russia and other former Soviet republics. As a result of this division, Russia received approximately 40% of the equipment and 65% of the personnel of the Soviet Air Force, becoming the only state in the post-Soviet space with long-range strategic aviation. Many planes were transferred from the former Soviet republics to Russia. Some were destroyed. In particular, 11 new Tu-160 bombers located in Ukraine were dismantled in cooperation with the United States.
In January 2008, Air Force Commander A. N. Zelin called the state of Russia's aerospace defense critical. In 2009, purchases of new aircraft for the Russian Air Force approached the level of purchases of aircraft of the Soviet era. The fifth-generation PAK FA fighter is being tested; on January 29, 2010, its first flight took place. The 5th generation fighters are planned to enter the troops in 2020. The number of personnel is 148 thousand people.
1
1st place - USA
Fighters Bombers Transport aircraft Combat helicoptersIn terms of the number of personnel and the number of aircraft, they are the largest air forces in the world. The United States Air Force was formed in its current form on September 18, 1947, shortly after the end of World War II. Up to this point, they were part of the US Army. The number of personnel is 329,638 people.
The United States Air Force provides high mobility to the American military. In this component, no army in the world comes close to the United States. The Air Force is a special type of force for the United States, which includes two components of the strategic triad at once: intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and strategic aviation. It is the US Air Force that is a kind of pole of attraction for most of the innovations that Americans are actively using in the military industry.
Continuation. Beginning in No. 5-2009
3. New projects of regional aircraft
Chinese regional aircraft ARJ21
The regional passenger aircraft of the Chinese design ARJ21-700 made its first flight in November 2008. In April 2009, its flight tests began. The ARJ21-700 turbofan airliner is designed for short and medium-haul airlines. This aircraft is designed to carry 70-110 passengers at a range of up to 3,700 km (the basic model of the aircraft is designed to carry 90 passengers at a range of 2,225 km). Its cost ranges from $ 27 million to $ 29 million. The first shipments of the liners are planned to be handed over to customers in 2010. It is also envisaged to create a cargo version of the aircraft with a maximum carrying capacity of about 10 tons.
ARJ21 is the first Chinese airliner for the domestic and foreign passenger transportation market, created in accordance with international standards and with the participation of specialists from other countries. In the creation of a wing with a supercritical profile, Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers from ANTK im. OK. Antonov. When building the aircraft, the Chinese used components from Western manufacturers, for example, Rockwell Collins was chosen as the supplier of avionics, and General Electric was chosen as the power plant. This means that Chinese aircraft manufacturers followed the traditional path of introducing existing world achievements, while simultaneously adopting design experience. The developers claim that the aircraft has a design life of 20 years, and the production volume is estimated at about 500 units - 350 for the domestic market in China and 150 for overseas carriers.
Japanese regional aircraft MRJ
The MRJ (Mitsubishi Regional Jet) aircraft is designed as a regional passenger airliner of 70–90 passenger seats. Its developers are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fudzy Heavy Industries corporations together with the Japanese Aircraft Development Association and Toyota (the latter intends to invest 10 billion Japanese yen - about $ 100 million) in the project. The total development cost is approximately 120 billion yen (approximately $ 1 billion). Two modifications of the aircraft are being developed - for 70-80 and 86-96 passenger seats. The flight range of the aircraft should be from 1600 to 3900 km. The American company Pratt & Whittney (P&W) will develop the engine. Pre-orders for 100 aircraft have been received, and, in addition to the Japanese airlines JAL and ANA, foreign air carriers have also begun to show attention to the new aircraft.
The new aircraft should take off in 2012 and appear on the market in early 2013. The first aircraft with a 90-seat layout (MRJ90) will be received by the launch customer, Japan's All Nippon Airways. The second largest Japanese carrier ordered 15 units. 90-seater cars with an option for 10 more liners. The cost of the base MRJ90 is estimated at $ 38 million. In total, Mitsubishi expects to sell from 300 to 500 MRJ aircraft. Among other things, the possibility of creating an "extended" version for 115 seats is also being considered.
New projects from Bombardier
According to the forecast of the Canadian firm Bombardier, in the next 20 years the world's airlines will need 6,300 units of 100-149-seater planes with a total value of over $ 250 billion. The company's goal is to get half of this market. In 2008, Bombardier announced the start of a program for the production of a family of new CSeries aircraft with a typical 5-in-row seating arrangement in the cabin. The aircraft development program began in 2004, and the aircraft are scheduled to enter service in 2013. The designation of the new aircraft of this series is CS100 and CS300 with a capacity of 110-115 and 122-145 passengers, respectively. The aircraft's flight range is about 3000 km. There are modifications СS100ER and СS300ER with flight range increased to 5000 km. The price of the aircraft is about $ 51 million.
New aircraft will have to emit less carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides than existing regional aircraft (up to 20 and 50%, respectively) and will be four times less noisy. It is also expected to reduce fuel consumption and operating costs by 20% and 15%, respectively. Thus, with the maximum density of the passenger compartment layout, CSeries aircraft will consume only two liters of fuel to transport one passenger per 100 km.
Bombardier continues to market the next generation of CRJ NG (Next Generation) regional aircraft. The company offered carriers a lightweight version of the CRJ-1000 EuroLite (EL) aircraft with 100 seats. Compared to the base aircraft, the new aircraft is 1.8 tons lighter. The new version is designed to minimize the costs of European operators who need a short-haul aircraft. The CRJ aircraft project was launched in 2007 and in 2008 the aircraft made its maiden flight. Commissioning is scheduled for 2010. Development of the CRJ-1000ER variant with a flight range increased to 3130 km is envisaged.
Embraer's new projects
The newest project of the Brazilian company Embraer is the regional aircraft E-195, which entered service in 2006. It differs from its predecessors E-190/175/170 by the increased number of passenger seats to 106-122 and a flight range of 3990 km for the 195 LR version. ...
Embraer intends, like Bombardier, to continue to increase the number of seats in regional aircraft and in 2011 to step over 120 seats and move on. The emergence of the next family of regional aircraft is expected closer to 2020, after which they will be able to really compete with the A320 and B737 aircraft.
Conclusions: in the global market civil aircraft there is a rather tough and uncompromising struggle called competition. The market itself is divided quite clearly: in the field of long-haul aircraft, it is dominated by Boeing and Airbus corporations, which are unlikely to allow other players to enter it. Those seeking to occupy some small niche on it are sent letters of recommendation from top officials with an insistent recommendation to buy Western aircraft, and first try themselves at a smaller level. Such a recommendation was given to Russia a few years ago, after which we concentrated on the projects of the regional SSJ 100 and An-148, as well as the MC21 short-medium-haul aircraft.
In the regional aircraft market, we will have to compete primarily with Embraer and Bombardier, which will soon be joined by Chinese and Japanese manufacturers. Quite a lot of materials have already been published in the press regarding the projects of the SSJ 100, An-148 and MS-21 aircraft. The developers do not always meet the promised deadlines yet, but they are trying to guarantee a sufficiently high technical level of the aircraft. However, there is still a certain feeling of annoyance: why did our developers choose 75–130 seats for the SSJ 100 aircraft, when foreign manufacturers have long been planning the production of much larger regional aircraft (up to 149 seats). This is due to the fact that in the international market, the demand for aircraft with a capacity of up to 100 seats has long fallen. Why manufacture planes that are known to be unprofitable? Perhaps a compromise will nevertheless be found when Russia and Ukraine can reasonably divide this capacity range among themselves, leaving the Ukrainian An-148 aircraft a niche for 70–88 seats, and for the Superjet - for 100–130 seats.
A competitor for our promising MC-21 aircraft is also planned. As the line between regional and short-haul aircraft is gradually blurring, Boeing and Airbus corporations usually create a line of aircraft models of various sizes at once. Several years ago, the B737-600 (110 passenger seats) lost a tender to the Brazilian aircraft Embraer 190/195 (114-122 places). However, after 2015–2018. Boeing will have already freed itself from the problems of creating the B787 aircraft and, in order not to lose the market, intends to create a new aircraft to replace the B737 aircraft. At the same time, Boeing plans to develop two aircraft models: one for 110–130 seats, the other with a larger capacity. The Airbus corporation is also preparing its own project in this class of aircraft.
But there is another scenario. As it was already in the class of long-haul aircraft, Russia can be offered to participate in the development of these projects together with Boeing or Airbus. What then? Surely we will agree again and will help to design, blow through, cast titanium blanks for individual units, etc.? Or maybe this will help us gain the necessary experience in order to further revive our aviation industry and enter the international aviation market? It is this path that China is trying to master now.
We really have a lot to learn from the world's leading aviation corporations, which have tremendous experience in conquering the market. Here are just a few features that characterize the work and reasons for the success of the Boeing and Airbus corporations:
International organizational structure of the corporation.
Obligatory international cooperation in the development and construction of aircraft, allowing you to share economic risks and ensure a guaranteed mutual access of project participants to the markets.
The presence of a stable team of highly qualified workers.
The presence of a ruler modern aircraft, while this line usually follows a certain sequence of technological innovations.
High technical level of aircraft (performance characteristics, reliability, safety, comfort, interior design and equipment).
Aircraft compliance with international environmental requirements (noise level, environmental pollution).
A multistage system for training the crew and those. personnel (usually for a family of aircraft of the same type, allowing pilots to transfer from one aircraft to another without retraining).
Providing aircraft maintenance worldwide.
We have already lost much of what is listed here and we need to recreate it, and this requires both time and considerable funds. Whether we are ready for a new leap or not, the coming years will show.
Russian aircraft and helicopter manufacturers face new challenges today. They will have to more actively integrate into the world market, quickly introduce new technologies and, if necessary, exchange qualified personnel.
These and other steps are contained in the draft updated Aviation Industry Strategy 2030. In addition, the document includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. “We are in favor of actively attracting private capital to the industry,” explained Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.
Benefits are not canceled
For industry participants, the existing state support measures will remain and even expand. “We will stimulate our airlines to acquire a fleet of Russian-made aircraft,” said Denis Manturov.
According to him, a new generation of suppliers should appear, working according to the strictest standards, in demand not only in the domestic but also in the global market. "The corporations of the aviation industry are already working in this direction," the minister said.
As before, the state relies on aviation science and ensuring the country's technological sovereignty. “As a result, we expect to build an economically stable, globally competitive industry, built into the international division of labor,” concluded Manturov.
The supplier is small, but smart
A new generation of suppliers, including small and medium-sized businesses, will work not only for the aviation industry, but also for related industries - automotive, space, shipbuilding, transport engineering and others.
Today, all of the largest aircraft and helicopter manufacturers in the world work with many large and small component manufacturers, focusing on the best product development, build quality and perfect after-sales service.
In Russia, the outdated industrial model of "full cycle" enterprises is still used - from casting to assembly of final products. In the modern world, there are almost no such enterprises left - it is unprofitable.
The world welcomes wide cooperation and division of labor, the authors of the document state. According to the executive director of the Aviaport agency Oleg Panteleyev, the strategy directly points to the key features of the "home aircraft building" and suggests ways to solve them in line with the trends of the global aviation industry. And this means that the emphasis should be on the independent development of so-called critical technologies that ensure competitiveness, on inclusion in international cooperation and the division of labor.
Digital factory
The most acute problem for Russian aircraft manufacturers is the tight domestic market and the closed nature of many foreign markets.
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) plans to produce about 35 SSJ100 aircraft a year in the near future. Opportunities allow doubling production and ensuring profitability of production due to the scale of the business. and they do not fly as often as Europeans or Americans, "Oleg Panteleev explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. That is why it is extremely important for Russian aircraft manufacturers to gain access to the international market.
"A breakthrough to Asian markets can be ensured by the implementation of a joint Russian-Chinese project of a wide-body long-haul aircraft (SHFDMS)," Oleg Panteleev believes.
The development of the export of military aircraft will be facilitated by the successful combat use of strike aircraft in Syria.
“It is important to understand what will be in demand in other countries. We rely on new aircraft models. These are SSJ100, MC21, Ka62, Mi38, Ansat,” the ministry explains.
Let us remind you that SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft created in close international cooperation, Ansat is a modern helicopter for widespread use in civil and special purposes. Ka62 and Mi38 are multipurpose helicopters, MC21 is a short-range aircraft.
More than 250 industrial enterprises and over 400 thousand workers are currently operating in the aviation industry.
The updated Aviation Industry Strategy focuses on enhanced scientific and technical development of the industry. Despite the implementation of promising projects in recent years, Russia has accumulated a lag behind the industry leaders, especially in the civilian segment. Many key technologies in the Russian aviation industry were developed back in the 1980s. And now in the global market, the requirements for the future aircraft associated with digital technology and innovation.
For example, Airbus is introducing a digital factory, an innovation that will increase productivity, reduce logistics and energy costs by 30%. Boeing and Airbus begin to use 3D printing technology that increases product durability by five times and cuts raw material costs by 90 percent. The development of after-sales service is also important: with the help of new developments, the speed of service provision is increasing in the world.
The projects that will turn the tide may be MC21 and the Russian-Chinese plane SHFDMS, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is counting on.
Let's join the alliance
What methods of integration into the global aviation industry are offered? In addition to export government support measures, this is close cooperation with countries developing their own aviation industry.
"For example, China does not have sufficient experience in the design of civil wide-body aircraft and aircraft engines. India does not have its own developments in the fifth generation fighter, civilian regional, narrow- and wide-body aircraft. The Russian aviation industry has competencies and technologies in these areas and can be a reliable partner for these countries, "the Ministry of Industry and Trade explains.
In addition, international alliances are planning to build according to the "competence in exchange for the market" scheme (for example, with China and India). Moreover, the possibility of creating joint ventures with developing countries for the development, production and promotion of aircraft is being considered.
In projects with international participation with high-tech countries, Russia is aimed at cooperation with France, Germany, the USA, Great Britain, and Japan. "The creation of conditions for international cooperation will be achieved, among other things, through political support from the state, in particular, at the level of intergovernmental agreements," the Strategy says.
When purchasing foreign aircraft, the industry participants, together with the state, will look for opportunities to meet the requirements for potential partners - to include domestic companies in international supply chains, localize the production of components in Russia, and conduct joint research and development work.
A separate topic is support for the domestic market for civil aircraft. When asked by RG, what incentives could airlines rely on when upgrading their fleets with domestic civilian airliners SSJ100 and MC21, they said that they would create special conditions under which Russian aircraft would be competitive in operation.
The problem of the accessibility of remote regions of Russia without a well-equipped airfield infrastructure will be solved, among other things, with the help of aircraft manufactured according to the models of military transport aviation. Taking into account the low serial production of such aircraft, the state will partially share the costs with air carriers for their operation.
Personnel turnover
Another of the strategic tasks is to create conditions for scientific centers to act as independent experts in evaluating constructive solutions and carrying out certification.
For the first time in Russia there will be an institute of general designers of corporations. It is created to coordinate all actions in the field of creation military equipment, as well as for the cooperation of various design bureaus. The main goal is to push the "flow of technology" from the military to the civilian sphere and vice versa. In general, to exclude duplication of design developments.
The strategy refers to the term "staff transfer". He will be able to move within the industry depending on the workload of the enterprise, the availability of vacancies and ambitions for his own career growth of employees, the ministry explained.
"There are a lot of skilled workers, but they are distributed pointwise and are inactive in comparison with other countries. For the aviation industry and related industries, it is important that people are ready to move for interesting and highly paid jobs to factories that experience a shortage of personnel, are ready to receive new knowledge, share those developments that have already helped to restore the industrial complex of a particular region, "- said the department.
The ministry is also considering a migration option in the event of the closure of unprofitable enterprises in single-industry towns. In addition to professional development and retraining of personnel, the programs also provide assistance in solving housing issues.
At the same time, market experts note that the Strategy covers too long a period - until 2030. The dynamics of the global development of the industry is such that the strategy will have to be updated much earlier.
Everything is private
The new industry strategy includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. The aviation industry is now largely dependent on government subsidies. The lack of extra-budgetary funding sources did not allow the implementation of the Aviation Industry Strategy-2015 in full. Therefore, in the future, the stake is on additional private capital and the privatization of state-owned companies.
2.6 trillion rubles will be the total revenue of the aviation industry by 2030, if the objectives of the Strategy are met
"There are different approaches to the management of the industry in the world. The largest American and Canadian aircraft companies are ruled by private capital, in Europe the state is a shareholder. Russia can choose an intermediate flexible scheme," Oleg Panteleev endorses the turn to privatization.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarifies that privatization is one of the possible steps to change the industrial model. The so-called non-core spheres for aircraft and helicopter manufacturers are going to be privatized, which can account for up to 60 percent of all labor costs and investments.
Infographics: "RG" / Anton Perepletchikov / Elena Berezina
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the production of trunk passenger liners(i.e., aircraft with a capacity of 150 people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000-5000 km), an American-European duopoly has developed: the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (Russia produces aircraft of the same size - Tu-204 and Il-96, but their production is of a single nature for state needs). The same concentration took place in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were two companies that produce such aircraft in truly serial production - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, the small-scale production of an aircraft of this class An-148). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to join a narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first appeared: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the market for long-haul aircraft is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of Boeing 737 and A319 / 320/321): Russia with the Irkut Corporation MC-21 project, China with the COMAC C919 aircraft and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in terms of passenger capacity " bottom ”to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.
Predictions of the giants
Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets — few industries have presented the same long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. Forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events that at one time hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. As follows from the latter (published in the fall of 2014) Boeing forecast, by 2033, 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. The cost of aircraft to be produced by 2033 will amount to a staggering $ 5.2 trillion (almost a third of the US GDP or about three of Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced in the forecasted twenty years, that is, almost 70%, in the Boeing classification, will be “long-haul aircraft with one aisle” (Boeing 737, А320, МС-21 and С919), and in value terms, their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced 2,490, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $ 100 billion. regional market as well as North America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, by 2033, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $ 150 billion (or 3% of the total world market). The former USSR will need 990 aircraft of the MS-21 type, and 160 regional airliners.
Why did "Tu" and "Il" disappear?
In the best years, the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jet aircraft a year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, i.e., a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR civil aircraft Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: a severe economic crisis, under-implementation of new projects, lack of modern maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, and a large surplus fleet of cars that were actually free for airlines due to the collapse of air travel. Starting in 2001, the state began to look for forms of consolidation of the industry, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration "from below", the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sale of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, nor the Il-96 (more than 20) did not become truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and the Il-96 - and because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, the scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, European EADS came closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of 10% of Irkut shares, and the Russian VTB bank bought 5% of EADS shares on the market. However, there were no decisive steps towards partnership - for various reasons, including political ones.
Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the June Le Bourget Air Show, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. Sales volume by 2034 will amount to $ 4.9 trillion, the total number of new airliners produced will be 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing's), the number of cars with one aisle for passengers will be 22,927, and at a cost of 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for extra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550, while Boeing expects only 620 to find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type, the A380, is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of an aircraft of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. the world will increase to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia and now, and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.
Share for Sukhoi Superjet
Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for airliners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner being developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. In its forecast published at last Le Bourget, Embraer expects the delivery of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats by 2034, including 380 in Russia and the CIS countries.
Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced), launched last year, has led to the fact that it occupied approximately 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.
View from Russia
A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will amount to 2,600 units, and the SSJ share - 14%, ie 364 units.
However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with large quantity the latest innovative systems, only the first flight is planned in 2016 (it took about four years for the Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial).
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the feasibility of sales plans for new types of Russian aircraft is determined by three factors. Firstly, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation, the Russian aviation industry does not control. Thirdly, the possibilities of promotion to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controllable.
