A major reform has begun in the Russian aviation industry since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was established. Now we are talking about the merger of the UAC, the Irkut corporation and the company " Civil aircraft Sukhoi "into a single structure that will deal with all the civilian programs of the UAC. It will also become the head division of the entire corporation.
This means that the UAC considers civil aircraft construction to be the key direction. On the one hand, in the face of a reduction in the state defense order, the inevitability of which has already been repeatedly stated at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers do not have to choose. On the other hand, if the authority of Russia in the region military aviation is not disputed by anyone, then on the market civil aircraft our country is classified as an outsider.
Which is quite fair, given that only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia last year. For comparison, the market leaders, Boeing and Airbus, produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.
A logical question arises - what can the UAC count on in the current situation?
Big pie
According to the forecast, which the United Aircraft Corporation presented at the July MAKS-2017 air show, the global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will amount to 41,800 aircraft total cost of nearly $ 6 trillion.
At the same time, narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 and more seats will be in the greatest demand among airlines, accounting for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, the UAC is developing the MC-21 program.
About 4.6 thousand units of new jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats will be sold by 2036 (11% of the total number). This segment in the UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.
The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 seats or more will amount to about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, the UAC is developing the Il-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will amount to 7,450 aircraft. For this segment, the UAC, together with the Chinese Civil Aviation Corporation COMAS, are planning to develop and produce a wide-body long-range aircraft of a new generation. A joint venture was opened in Shanghai this year to manage the program.
That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to answer the market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.
Three gray horses
To begin with, only Sukhoi Superjet is actually present on the market today. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century hiatus. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially justified.
Pilots who have piloted the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, they recognize the presence of many minor malfunctions, which, however, do not affect flight safety. The main complaint of the professionals is related to very poor service support, which is why the planes are idle for a long time without spare parts.
Passengers have more complaints - there is poor noise and vibration isolation ("I sat in the 7F seat near the engine and received free vibration massage - very loud noise and vibration"), as well as small and low windows.
Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ patriot car: good transport for passengers without any special complaints. It is noteworthy that the Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet acquired 30 SSJ 100) dubbed the "Superjet" tank.
It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To reach the profitability of the UAC, it is necessary to sell at least 300 aircraft, but so far three times less have been sold. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.
For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer last year produced 225 aircraft: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - Superjet rivals. It is not surprising that recently the President of the United Aircraft Corporation Yuri Slyusar announced the rejection of large volumes of SSJ production: the corporation plans to release 30-40 Superjets per year, but is not going to "scale this project to large volumes."
Now the main hope of the UAC has become the MS-21 project. This aircraft is close in characteristics to the current segment leader - the Canadian Bombardier СS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian one is built according to the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (however, in the future, it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MS-21). Economical engines and lightweight body allow Bombardier СS300 and МС-21 to save up to 20% fuel compared to Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, the MS-21 is more capacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats (the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.
The Il-114 is a plane from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after I. V.P. Chkalov. In total, ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are included in the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 with Russian TV7-117ST engines at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total volume of production, including civilian and special versions, can be 100 vehicles. The updated Il-114 should make its first flight in 2018.
Aeroflot against the Ministry of Industry and Trade
The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their sales. It is already clear that the "Superjet" will not reach the production rate of 300 aircraft required to pay off the project. MS-21 with the current volume of investments will pay off after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced Il-114 has the greatest chances of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.
Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will amount to a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will occupy all this volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed to abolish the privileges for the import of foreign aircraft, which "will establish customs and tariff protection of the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - SSJ 100 extended version and MS-21-300."
This innovation was actively opposed by Aeroflot, whose fleet in 2018 should receive 31 (!) Foreign aircraft. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, which notes that if the preferential regime is suspended, additional costs for the import of aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce the purchase plan for aircraft "of both foreign and Russian production", which will not allow expanding route network, "including regional and socially significant routes".
Photo: portal Moscow 24 / Lidia Shironina
Unreal export
Even if the main Russian airline is not eager to abandon the import of aircraft for the sake of supporting the Superjet and MS-21, what can we say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.
First, the Irkut corporation, the manufacturer of the MC-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighters. The first civilian aircraft produced by the corporation will be greeted by airlines with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when the experience of operating the MS-21 at Aeroflot has been gained (which will have to acquire new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).
Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and revision, which on average takes about 15 years. And no serious airline will order large quantities of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even then, new manufacturers such as Irkut can only rely on orders from small carriers that do not have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.
Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-haul aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all global manufacturers.
Thus, for at least the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned unprofitable industry, living largely on budget subsidies. In these conditions, it is very likely that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for the next optimization of the aviation industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.
Aviation implies the design and creation of a full-fledged aircraft and its components. Few and very expensive products are subsequently used for both civilian and military purposes.
There is no doubt that the most convenient transport for travel is the plane. About the significance aircraft in the affairs of the country's defense and it is not necessary to speak. All this makes the aircraft industry a priority and makes the largest aircraft building companies in the world a special category.
Aircraft giants
Almost all engineering products are used in the aircraft industry today. In addition, all innovative scientific and technical processes are undoubtedly used in it. It is logical to assume: if the state is able to locate such an industrial complex on its territory, this means its financial viability, the opportunity to show itself as a reliable business partner.
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The constant development of the industry presupposes the use of supernova information technologies (we are talking not only about the manufacture of aircraft, but also the components for them). From the economic point of view, these are, of course, certain and very serious financial investments. On the other hand, every state needs the aviation industry. This formulation of the question makes it necessary to help such enterprises from the state.
Below is a list of the ten largest aircraft manufacturers in the world. The Forbes rating is based on the market value of enterprises, which placed them in the top 10.
| Place in the general Forbes list | Name of company | Country of location | Market value for 2016, billion dollars |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolls-royce holdings | Great Britain | |||
| Great Britain | ||||
| Northrop grumman | ||||
| General dynamics | ||||
| Netherlands | ||||
| The boeing company |
10th place: starting with Rolls-Royce Holdings
A division of the company with a big name specializes in the production of engines for civil aviation. The organization has been working in the aircraft industry since 1904. For more than a century of history, the corporation has earned world recognition and the desire to cooperate with foreign customers. In this regard, Russia is not lagging behind either: it is Rolls-Royce that offers to supply its engines for the future Russian-Chinese long-haul airliner.
The company employs 54,100 people. Annual revenue last year was $ 20.18 billion.
9th place: French company Thales
The $ 20.6 billion in capital value of this company is deservedly attributable to the diligent work that dates back to 1918. Today the organization is engaged in the production of aerospace information systems. Among the company's products are components for military aviation, electronics for fighters.
The organization is named after Thales of Miletus, an ancient Greek philosopher. Offices are located in more than 50 countries of the world, and the total staff of all employees working in it reaches 68,000 people. Sales revenue for 2016 was $ 16.5 billion.
8th place: British company BAE Systems plc
BAE Systems is essentially a British defense company that promotes its products in the aerospace industry. He works with foreign customers (mainly from the USA) through a subsidiary organization BAE Systems Inc. A division of British Aerospace (BAe) works directly with the aerospace environment.
The organization actively lobbies its interests in the former Soviet republics. For example, since 2001, it owns 49% of the national Kazakh carrier Air Astana.
According to the latest data, the organization employs 88,200 people worldwide. The headquarters itself is located in London. Now about the financial component: in 2016, the corporation's revenue amounted to $ 24 billion.
7th place: French corporation Safran
Aerospace and aeronautical equipment are among several areas of this French industrial conglomerate. It mainly specializes in commercial and military engines, as well as the restoration and repair of jet engine models. There is also a turbo direction - turboshaft engines for helicopters and turbines for missiles. In addition, other components for aircraft and engines are manufactured.
In total, the company employs 57495 people. Revenue for 2016 was $ 18.23 billion.
6th place: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
This corporation was organized in 1994 and united the Northrop Corporation and the Grumman Corporation. Aviation and space are not the only areas of its activity. As a technique for this, the company produces military fighters and even airships (Airlander 10).
Northrop Grumman Corporation generated revenue for 2016 in the equivalent of $ 24.51 billion. In total, this organization employs 67,000 people.
5th place: Raytheon
The top five starts with the American manufacturer, which earns more than 90% of its income from defense orders. The products are of a rather specific nature - these are radio-controlled missiles and guidance systems that make up space systems, guidance technologies.
The name Raytheon is interestingly translated - "Divine Ray", which is associated with the original production of ray tubes from 1922. Raytheon retrained into an aviation-related company during World War II. The project was the development of protection against attacks by Japanese kamikaze, which expanded into large-scale production.
Raytheon currently employs 63,000 people. Revenue for 2016 was $ 24.07 billion.
4th place: American General Dynamics
One of the giants in the production of military and aerospace technical arsenal is the fifth on the planet to conclude contracts related to the supply of aircraft for defense needs.
The organization is a supplier of the most powerful information systems, which include intercontinental missiles, satellite data processing systems and the like. For a long time, General Dynamics collaborated with NASA.
In addition to aerospace products, the company is also engaged in the production of naval and combat systems. The leading role here also lies in the development of information technology. In total, the organization employs 98,800 employees, who provided revenue of $ 31.35 billion over the past 2016.
3rd place: bronze Dutchman Airbus Group (formerly EADS)
The organization is better known today under the name Airbus Group. It is the largest aerospace corporation in Europe, headquartered not only in the Dutch capital, but also in Paris and Ottobrunn.
The company is relatively young, formed by the merger of other large specialized organizations in 2000. EADS was renamed into Airbus Group only in 2013. Along with this, the management announced a restructuring, after which three divisions are expected: Airbus will be engaged in the direction of commercial aircraft construction, Airbus Helicopters will specialize in the production of helicopters, and Airbus Defense & Space will become a platform for the production of military and space technology.
The company's revenue for 2016 was $ 73.7 billion. The Airbus Group employs 133,000 people.
2nd Place: Lockheed Martin Silver Medalist
Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global company that specializes in the defense and space segment of the market. Notable examples of production include fighter-bombers (5th generation F-35) and F-22 class fighter models.
The main client of the company is the native American government, which generates approximately 82% of the company's revenue. The rest is provided by international contracts (work under the arms sales program). The number of commercial orders is only 1% of the revenue. The company's total profit for 2016 is $ 79.9 billion.
All in all, this organization employs 97,000 people. Headquartered in American state Maryland, in the city of Bethesda.
1st place: the undisputed leader of Boeing
The world's largest manufacturer is headquartered in Chicago. Specialization - the production of aviation, military and even space technology. The military arsenal is handled by the Boeing Integrated Defense Systems division, and the civilian direction is under the wing of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
In addition, one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world produces a wide range of military equipment (including helicopters) and participates in large-scale space programs (an example is the CST-100, a spacecraft).
The company's capitalization is $ 108.9 billion, and last year's revenue was $ 94.6 billion. Today this structure employs 150,500 people. Factories operate in 67 countries of the world, and goods are supplied to 145 countries. And that's not all the numbers: more than 5,200 suppliers from 100 countries are partners of the organization.
Features of the aircraft industry
Initially, aircraft construction was formed as a military sector. The release of civilian objects began to be thought about later. This made the aircraft industry monetized and gave certain specific features:
- The production of military products is determined by the military orders of its own state and the possibilities of export world supplies.
- The production of civil aircraft is entirely dependent on the receipt of national and world orders. Naturally, these figures can fluctuate greatly depending on demand.
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A separate issue concerns the cost of production itself. It may be surprising that back in the mid-90s it was valued 4 times less than the automobile one, that is, only $ 250 billion. Everything can be explained simply: airplanes cannot be called a mass product, this is a piece production. The annual production of civil aviation objects hardly exceeds the volume of 1000 units, the figures for the military structure may be even less, only 600 units per year.
The situation is a little saved by the well-established production of so-called light aircraft. The great demand for them is also due to affordable price- from 20 to 80 thousand dollars. Most often, these products are used for educational, sports or business purposes.
The high science intensity of the entire process is also of great importance. Typically, the development of any aircraft (both military and civilian) can take from 5 to 10 years. The high prices for the design and creation of aircraft objects are so high that few companies in the world can afford such activities:
Position in the Russian market
The leader of the domestic aircraft industry is the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC). It was created in 2006 and united all the previously existing aircraft design organizations of the country.
The corporation's revenue is RUB 295 billion. During the work, more than 200 aircraft were delivered. In recent years, special emphasis has been placed on the development of the short-haul line Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100). In 2016 alone, 34 deliveries of this aircraft model took place. To date, more than 50 such machines are in operation, and 13 of them are used outside of Russia.
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Another promising direction of the UAC is the new generation MC21 medium-range airliners, the first flight tests of which took place last year. There is a demand for them: immediately after the tests, 175 orders and applications for the manufacture of such equipment were received. The UAC plans to produce 72 of these airliners per year.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the production of trunk passenger liners(i.e., aircraft with a capacity of 150 people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000-5000 km), an American-European duopoly has developed: the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (Russia produces aircraft of the same size - Tu-204 and Il-96, but their production is of a single nature for state needs). The same concentration took place in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were two companies that produce such aircraft in truly serial production - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, little vegetation mass production aircraft of this class An-148). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to join a narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first appeared: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the market for long-haul aircraft is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of Boeing 737 and A319 / 320/321): Russia with the MC-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft from COMAC and the Canadian Bombardier, new liner which CSeries approaches in terms of passenger capacity “from below” to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.
Predictions of the giants
Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets — few industries have presented the same long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. Forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events that at one time hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. According to Boeing's latest forecast (published in the fall of 2014), 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced by 2033, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. produced by 2033, will amount to a staggering $ 5.2 trillion (almost a third of the US GDP, or about three of Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced in the forecasted twenty years, that is, almost 70%, in the Boeing classification, will be “long-haul aircraft with one aisle” (Boeing 737, А320, МС-21 and С919), and in value terms, their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced 2,490 units, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $ 100 billion America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, by 2033, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $ 150 billion (or 3% of the total world market). Aircraft of the MS-21 type the former USSR you will need 990, and regional liners - 160.
Why did "Tu" and "Il" disappear?
V best years the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jet aircraft a year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, i.e., a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aircraft industry in Russia was in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: the most severe economic crisis, under-implementation of new projects, lack of modern maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, resulting from the collapse of air travel, a large surplus fleet of virtually free for airlines machines. Starting in 2001, the state began to look for forms of consolidation of the industry, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration "from below", the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sale of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, nor the Il-96 (more than 20) did not become truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and the Il-96 - and because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, the scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, European EADS came closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of 10% of Irkut shares, and the Russian VTB bank bought 5% of EADS shares on the market. However, there were no decisive steps towards partnership - for various reasons, including political ones.
Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the June Le Bourget Air Show, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. Sales volume by 2034 will amount to $ 4.9 trillion, the total number of new airliners produced will be 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing's), the number of cars with one aisle for passengers will be 22,927, and at a cost of 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for extra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550, while Boeing expects only 620 to find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type, the A380, is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of an aircraft of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. the world will increase to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia and now, and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.
Share for Sukhoi Superjet
Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for airliners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner being developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. In its forecast published at last Le Bourget, Embraer expects the delivery of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats by 2034, including 380 in Russia and the CIS countries.
Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced), launched last year, has led to the fact that it occupied approximately 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.
View from Russia
A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will amount to 2,600 units, and the SSJ share - 14%, ie 364 units.
However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, in 2016 only the first flight is planned (Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial took about four years).
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the feasibility of sales plans for new types of Russian aircraft is determined by three factors. Firstly, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation, the Russian aviation industry does not control. Thirdly, the possibilities of promotion to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controllable.
General characteristics of the world market
The growth outlook for the civil aviation market is highly dependent on rising jet fuel prices and the CAGR of the global economy and trade. With an average annual growth rate of the world economy in 2007-2025. at the level of 3.1% per year, the average annual growth in the volume of air passenger traffic for the same period will be 4.9%, and freight traffic - 6.1%. Then, according to the forecast estimates of the Boeing Co firm, the volume of the market for new civil aircraft in 2007-2025. will be about 2.6-2.8 trillion. dollars. In the period up to 2025, airlines will need approx. 28,600 new passenger and cargo aircraft. The global fleet of civil aircraft will more than double, from 17,330 aircraft (2005) to about 36,000 (2025). Basically, these will be narrow-body (100-240 passengers) and wide-body (200-400 passengers) aircraft. 9,580 new airliners will replace less efficient aircraft being removed from the companies' fleets. Most of them will be decommissioned, but 2,220 passenger liners will be converted into cargo aircraft... In addition, the airlines will receive 770 new cargo planes.
The aircraft in this segment, such as the Boeing-787 and Boeing-777, will enable airlines to thrive by operating more flights to more airports to meet the needs of passengers. Boeing-747 and larger aircraft will be actively operated on routes connecting Asian countries with other regions, as well as on transatlantic routes. According to forecasts, there will be a steady demand in the market for large-capacity cargo aircraft due to their high efficiency, reliability, flight range and excellent load factors.
The number of airplanes operated in the world with 30-60 seats by 2015 will slightly exceed 2000 units available in 2005, and by 2025 it will amount to 2500 units. At the same time, the number of cars for 61-90 passenger seats will increase from the current 700 to 1700 in 2015 and 3300 in 2025. The fastest growing demand will be for cars with a capacity of 91 to 120 passengers. If in 2005 there were just over 700 of them in the world's airlines, then by 2015 the fleet of such aircraft will increase to 2,500, and by 2025 - to 3,800 units. In total, by 2025, 7,950 aircraft with a capacity of 30-120 passengers will be sold in the world for the amount of about 180 billion dollars.
The business jet market is booming and will continue to expand over the medium term. In 2005, 737 business jets were sold worldwide, 850 were delivered in 2006, and in 2007 (according to preliminary estimates) the expansion of sales approached the level of 1000 aircraft. For the period 2008-2010 the total volume of orders is estimated at 3.1-3.4 thousand aircraft. The main customers will be North American companies (61% of orders), which are to renew their fleet of business jets by 23%. Strong demand is expected from outside European countries, and it will expand as a result of the growth of incomes of the population of Russia and the states of Eastern Europe. By 2011-2012 orders from Asia, Africa and the Middle East are forecast to jump (up to 50% compared to current levels).
In total, in the period from 2007 to 2025, about 24,000 business jets will be produced in the world.
According to the forecast of Boeing Co., by 2026 the airlines will acquire:
3,700 regional aircraft (with a capacity of less than 90 passengers);
17,650 narrow-body aircraft (90-240 passengers in a two-class layout);
6,290 wide-body aircraft (200-400 passengers with a three-class layout);
960 aircraft of the Boeing-747 class and larger capacity (more than 400 passengers with a three-class layout).
Geography of world production and consumption
The world market of civil aircraft today is provided mainly by the products of four companies: the market of long-haul aircraft is an area of interest Boeing companies(USA) and Airbus (EU), and the vast majority of regional aircraft deliveries are provided by Bombardier (Canada), Embraer (Brazil) and ATR (Italy). Positions in the specified market of other aircraft manufacturing enterprises of the world, including Russian ones, can be characterized as starting ones at the moment.
In 2006, the world leaders of the civil aviation industry produced ~ 820 long-haul and ~ 250 regional aircraft of all types.
The largest market in the period 2006-2025 will be the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - 36% of the total amount of 2.8 trillion. dollars, which is due to the significant demand for wide-body airliners in the region. Airlines from North America will account for 28% of purchases, Europe - 24%. The remaining 12% are from country customers Latin America, The Middle East and Africa.
An additional operational factor for the Asian market in comparison with the American and Western European is the presence of large passenger flows with a short length of air lines. With a large market volume, this feature can lead to the appearance of modifications or types of aircraft designed specifically for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
The number of countries producing aviation equipment is expected to expand. The traditional players of the long-haul aircraft market, the aviation industry of Europe, the American corporation Boeing, will face competition from Russian (UAC), Asian manufacturers (AVIC-I, Mitsubishi HI), as well as projects of long-haul aircraft created by companies that are traditional representatives of the regional and business markets. aviation (by Bombardier and Embraer). The market for reactive regional aircraft will also acquire a multipolarity of supply due to falling into the sphere of interests of the aviation industry of developing countries. In addition to traditional players such as Embraer and Bombardier, currently dividing the market almost on parity, in the near future the Russian SSJ-100 and Chinese ARJ-21 may enter the market.
New products and technologies
The main trends in the technological development of civil aircraft for the period up to 2025 include the following areas:
development of environmentally friendly power plants (ensuring a margin of 15 EPNdB for noise, as well as a 20% reduction in emissions of harmful substances);
improvement of the expenditure characteristics of civil aviation aircraft (on average by 20%);
improvement of airframe aerodynamics (search for alternative layouts, implementation of the concept of a load-bearing fuselage);
implementation of the concept of an all-electric aircraft (development of engines with an integrated electric generator, electric control systems for aerodynamic surfaces, an autonomous air conditioning system, electromechanisms for landing gear retraction and extension, re-standardization of the on-board electrical system);
"Black plane" - a constructive and technological solution to the problems of manufacturing an aircraft structure from light composite materials (for example, with carbon reinforcement);
the use of nanotechnology for controlling the boundary layer, solving problems of increasing the strength of structures (nanomaterials), interactive diagnostics and taking readings of pressure, temperature, deformations, etc., (nanosensors);
global introduction of digital flight and navigation aids using satellite navigation systems.
The transformation of the economy is accompanied by the transition from transnational integration to transcontinental integration, which is manifested for the world aircraft market in the emergence of prerequisites for the disappearance of such concepts as "American / European / Russian aviation industry": the capacities of the aircraft industry in Eastern Europe are used in the production of American aircraft; the Chinese aircraft manufacturer AVIC cooperates with the European concern Airbus and the American corporation General Electric, etc. Any attempt to close on a national scale today has no prospects. This determines the primary importance of the influence of global factors Therefore, the modern world civil aircraft market, on the one hand, reflects the main global economic trends of today, but on the other hand, it has its own specific development.
Trends in the development of world aircraft construction are simultaneously highlighted in the studies of aircraft manufacturing corporations that have their own research centers, and in research conducted by scientists as part of their activities in scientific institutions. Among the main studies that form the basis of the strategies of aircraft corporations are "Global Market Forecast" from Airbus, "Current Market Outlook 20122031" from Boeing, "Market Forecast" from Bombardier, Worldwide Market Forecast 2014-2033 from Japan Aircraft Development Corporation and some other. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also regularly publishes its own research (eg "Airplane Outlook"). Partially based on such forecasts, the prospects of aircraft construction in the scientific research of J. Wenswin and A. Wells are highlighted. Sokolova, M.V. Boykova, S.D. Gavrilov and NA. Gavrilichova A. Khatypova and T.T. Khalilov, T. Boetsha, T. Viger and A. Vitmer, Y. Prikhodko and other authors.
First of all, in the available studies, the transformation of the market structure of the aircraft industry is noted and, accordingly, the strategies of the leading market agents are analyzed. However, at the same time, separate features characterizing changes in aircraft construction are highlighted, and the available forecasts for the development of the aircraft market are based mainly on forecasting the demand for aircraft and the study of factors influencing it, and do not take into account the general direction of socio-economic development as a whole. That is, we can talk about the absence of an integrated approach when analyzing the current state and changes in the industry, which significantly reduces the reliability and completeness of forecasts. Taking this into account, there is a need to systematize individual manifestations and form a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft market. At the same time, from our point of view, the formation of a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft industry market provides for (Figure 3.4):
firstly, analysis of the structure of the world aircraft market, definition of segmentation criteria and main market agents, generalization of the main trends;
secondly, the analysis of external factors affecting the development of aircraft construction in terms of quantitative and qualitative parameters;
thirdly, the analysis of the behavior of market actors, determining the ways of organizing a business inherent in market leaders.
Figure 3.4. v Objectives of researching changes in the global aircraft market
Aircraft market segments and structure
The modern structure of the aircraft construction market is of a matrix nature: at the same time, there is a distribution, on the one hand, into two sectors - the production of final products and consumer services (spare parts, components, services), on the other hand, each of these sectors is divided into sectors of civilian and military products (Figure 3.5).
There are several companies on the military aircraft market: Boeing - approximately 22% in the global military aircraft industry in 2011, Lockheed Martin - 21%, Northrop Grumman - 11% (the combined share of US companies in the global military aircraft industry is 54%), Eurofighter - about 11%, EADS - 10%, Dassault - 4% (the aggregate share of European Union companies in the global military aircraft industry is 25%), the share of Russian companies is 20.6%. At the same time, the creation of a common Anglo-Saxon transatlantic defense market with a powerful diffusion of the military-industrial complexes of countries is observed, and on the territory of the European Union - the formation of a single defense market within the countries that are part of it.
Figure 3.5. v
Among the specific trends in the development of the military aircraft market, the following can be noted:
In developing countries, instead of buying new military aircraft, there is an increase in demand for the modernization of existing weapons with the provision of appropriate operational support;
Economically developed countries get rid of technically obsolete aircraft, stimulating its sale by transferring rights to licensed production, assistance in establishing service infrastructure;
The formation of demand for military aircraft depends on the political and economic climate on the planet and strategic relations between countries.
The biggest obstacle to the analysis of the military aircraft market is political bias, which manifests itself in the secrecy or lack of reliable information about the characteristics of the latest technology and agreements have been concluded. Taking into account these factors, the ratio of the civil and military aircraft market (the total share of the military aircraft industry is about 40% of the global aircraft industry, and about 20% in the final product), as well as the trend of borrowing civilian and military aircraft technologies, we focus on researching the civilian market. aircraft industry in the world.
At the same time, in the civil aircraft industry, the final output is distributed between aircraft and helicopters as 88-90% / 12-10% in favor of aircraft. Therefore, we will focus the analysis of trends in the aircraft industry on the example of the civil aircraft market and will carry it out through the stages shown in Figure 3.6.
Figure 3.6. v
In order to characterize the world market of civil aircraft industry, given the significant differentiation of aviation technology, it is necessary to consider the criteria for its segmentation.
Most often, the civil aircraft market, depending on the type of fuselage and flight range, is divided into the following segments: the market for medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft, the market for medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft, the market for regional and the market for local aircraft (Appendix B).
This type of market segmentation is rather arbitrary and can be modified in different studies - in addition, smaller segments are distinguished or a more enlarged hem is used.
Also, three criteria are used for segmenting the aviation market: the type of aircraft power plant (turboprop, jet), the intended purpose of the aircraft (passenger, transport) and passenger or cargo capacity. Therefore, in order to form a more holistic picture of the aircraft market, in the future, for market analysis, we will use mixed segmentation, presented in Appendix D.
The development of segments of the civil aircraft market is associated with the range of transportation, therefore, we will characterize the distribution of world passenger traffic by type of aircraft and flight range (see Figure 3.7). The main passenger traffic falls on narrow-body aircraft, which operate on routes from 500 to 4500 km, reaching the ASK indicator (Available Seat Kilometers - passenger seat-kilometer) in the amount of 300 to 750 million passenger seat-kilometers on lines from 1000 to 3500 km. Turboprop aircraft mainly operate on routes up to 1,500 km, the same length is the main one for regional aircraft - on routes up to 1,500 km, passenger traffic is more than 100 million passenger seats-kilometer. Passenger traffic on lines from 4000 km and more is carried out mainly by wide-body aircraft. It should be noted that routes up to 4500 km account for about 65% passenger transportation.
Figure 3.7. v
In terms of passenger capacity with a range of up to 1000 km, the most common are airliners with a capacity of 120-169 seats, from 1001 to 2000 km - 120-169 and 170-229 seats, from 2001 to 4500 km - 120169, 170-229, 230-309 and 310-399 seats, more than 4500 km - 230-309, 310-399, 400-499 and 500-800 seats (Figure 3.8).
Figure 3.8. in (built from data)
The structure of the fleet of jet passenger aircraft in 2013 is shown in Fig. 3.9-10, from which it can be seen that the largest share in the composition of aircraft is made up with a significant predominance of aircraft with a capacity of 120-169 seats (51.22%), in second place are aircraft with a capacity 60-99 places (19.39%).
Analysis of the dynamics of the fleet of turboprop passenger aircraft in the world for 2000-2013. (Figure 3.11) demonstrates a general decline in the operation of turboprop passenger aircraft, which mostly affects the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats (by almost 30% in 2013 compared to 2000) and is slightly offset by an increase in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 places (almost 12% in 2013 in relation to 2000).
Figure 3.9. in (built from data)
Figure 3.10. in (built from data)
Figure 3.11. in (built from data)
This is due to the appearance in the second half of the 1990s and early 2000s. jets with less than 50 seats, which are more economical than the corresponding turboprop aircraft. As a result, the structure of the market for turboprop passenger aircraft in 2013 (see Figure 3.12) consists of three segments: aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats -51.66% (68.62% in 2000), 40-59 seats - 22.56% (23.9 in 2000), more than 60 places - 25.79% (7.49% in 2000).
Figure 3.12. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the distribution of types of airliners in the regional context (Figure 3.13 and Figure 3.14).
Figure 3.13. in (built from data)
As can be seen from Fig. 3.13 and the data in Appendix D, regional jet aircraft most common in North America (53.62% of the total number of regional jets) and Europe (16.91%). Narrow-body jets are in greatest demand in the Asia-Pacific region (29.11% of the total number of narrow-body jets), North America (28.3%), and Europe (22.8%). Wide-body jets are more commonly used for transportation in the Asia-Pacific region (37.18% of the total number of wide-body jets), Europe (20.99%), North America (16.66%).
Turboprop passenger aircraft (data in Figure 3.14 and Appendix E) are generally most used in the Asia-Pacific region (25.44% of the total number of turboprop aircraft). At the same time, North America (30.68% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats) and the Asia-Pacific region (22.61%) are the leaders in the local transportation market, in the regional market in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats. The Pacific region (23.92% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats) and the CIS countries (22.15%), in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats - the Asia-Pacific region (32.45% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats), Europe (26.8%) and North America (16.61%). To explain this proliferation of jet and turboprop passenger aircraft, it is necessary to analyze the economic and other specifics of the regions of the world.
Figure 3.14. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the development trends of the jet cargo aircraft market (Figure 3.15).
Between 2000 and 2013, the total number of jet freighters decreased by 4.5% and the structure of this market changed. Thus, in 2000, 39.67% of the total were narrow-body cargo aircraft and 40.01% of medium wide-body cargo aircraft. After a sharp increase in the use of narrow-body cargo aircraft in 2005 to 50.28% of the total in 2013, a proportional structure of the market was established (approximately 33% for each segment).
Figure 3.15. in (built from data)
In addition to the economic factors that determine the use of cargo aircraft, it is necessary to take into account the existing practice of converting passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft. So, about 50% of the cargo aircraft operating in the world today were converted into cargo aircraft. Conversion of passenger aircraft begins after 10 years of operation, since the peak in use of passenger aircraft is 15 years. After conversion, up to the moment of scrapping, the converted cargo aircraft have been operating for about 25 years. Since 2003, there has been a downward trend in conversion practice (Figure 3.16).
Figure 3.16. in (built from data)
Regionally, the analysis of the operation of cargo aircraft in 2012 (Figure 3.17) shows that the largest share of the use of cargo aircraft falls on three regions: Asia-Pacific (29%), Europe (26%) and North America (25%).
Figure 3.17. in (built from data)
Let's compare in the regional context the movement of freight and passenger traffic. As Figure 3.18 shows, the distribution of cargo and passenger aircraft across the world is similar, suggesting that the same factors will affect these markets.
Figure 3.18. in (built from data)
Let us summarize the analysis of the development of aircraft market segments (final products) by simultaneously determining the distribution of segments by manufacturing company and aircraft type (Figure 3.19).
At present, two conglomerates Boeing (CELA) and Airbus S. A. S. (European Union) compete on the mainline airliners market (25.2% of the global aircraft manufacturing market), with a combined market share of more than 90%; in the regional aircraft market - Bombardier (Canada) and Embraer (Brazil) with a combined market share of about 78%. The production of the CIS countries, including Ukraine, reaches about 2% of civil aircraft.
Figure 3.19. c (final products 2010-2011 according to data)
Thus, the modern world fleet of civil aircraft consists of jet and turboprop aircraft, which has a wide segmentation. Each type of aircraft, due to its technical and economic characteristics, has its own market niche and a certain competition zone (flight range up to 1000 km; passenger capacity 60-99 seats). In general, the most common in 2013 are jet aircraft. Turboprop aircraft are gradually being decommissioned due to aging and are not replaced in an appropriate number by new ones, but it is impossible to talk about the decline of this market segment. Based on the results of the analysis of aircraft operation in a regional context, it is impossible to unambiguously determine the prevalence of one or another type of aircraft, therefore, an explanation of the general dynamics and distribution of traffic in the regions of the world requires the study of factors influencing the development of the aircraft market. At the same time, it should be noted the uneven development of the aircraft industry across the regions.
