Justification of the stages of development of rear container terminals yulia panova. Justification of the staged development of rear container terminals yulia panova, nikolaevna Panova Formation of a matrix of capital investments and operating costs by options

She was born on July 10, 1965 in Minsk, in a military family. In 1987 she graduated from the Latvian State University. Petra Stuchka specializing in philologist, teacher, translator (English and German). Since 1991 I have lived in Novosibirsk, taught at universities and schools in the city. Now I work as an English teacher. language in MBOU Gymnasium №4 - I have the first qualification category (and in the report "The personality of the teacher ..." an unfortunate mistake crept in). I am married, I have three children (son Daniel, 27 years old, son Stepan 17 years old and daughter Tatyana 14 years old). A parishioner of the Alexander Nevsky Cathedral. Since January 2014 I have been leading the Pedagogy for All column on the Internet radio Logos of the Novosibirsk Metropolis.

AUTOBIOGRAPHY
(literary version)

Grandmother
I was lucky - I turned out to be a sickly child and grew up with my grandmother, but did not go to kindergarten. I remember my grandmother's hands with dry skin like parchment, the knock of her knitting needles as she knitted endless sweaters and socks, as well as her sorrel pies. We did not keep vegetable gardens (due to Dad's frequent travels), and therefore we collected sorrel in the meadow. And now, about those inexhaustible sources of sorrel, I tell my children when we bake pies with sorrel at the dacha: if you cut off a garden bed, that's enough for one pie, and then wait again when it grows.

friendship of Peoples
Dad served in the air defense forces in the Baltic Military District, so Latvians and Lithuanians were friends (in addition to Tatars, Kazakhs, Armenians and representatives of other nationalities - children of dad's colleagues). Maybe the philologist in me woke up when I listened attentively to the sound of the most beautiful Tatar names - Nail Ismagilovich, Mariam Sofievna, Nuria Bodrievna? Or when, with joyful amazement, I discovered that the surname of my Lithuanian friend Edita was Jurevichiute, her mother was Jureviciene, and her dad was Jurevicius. And when, years later, another Lithuanian girlfriend married Volodya Osipov, she jokingly called herself Osipene.

Teachers
There were a lot of them (I had to study in three schools) and all were good. Two were especially remembered: a very strict and fair physical education teacher Shmidt Arnold Yakovlevich - a Latvian of German origin and a literature teacher Krol Lyudmila Stanislavovna, who left an indelible mark with her honesty with everyone, including herself, her excellent knowledge of the subject, the smell of good perfume and her manner of speaking quickly.

Dad
It was very worthy person, a courageous officer and an honest campaigner. Of those who are called the commanding fathers. For 33 years of service - and there were practice shooting in the area of ​​Lake Balkhash, and work on virgin soil, for which dad received the Order of the Red Banner of Labor, and work as a unit commander - only one soldier died (the young man hanged himself when he received a farewell letter from his girlfriend). As a true military man, he practically did not speak about service. Once I allowed myself to say: "It was you who had a peaceful life, and I, taking over duty, could never be sure that it would not turn out to be a combat one." And when in the Soviet Union there was an incident with a South Korean plane (on Far East a plane with 250 passengers on board was shot down, mistaken for a reconnaissance plane), dad - and he then held a very high position - came home haggard and said at dinner: “This is the same as me - poor fellow - an operational duty officer, knocked down. Nerves could not stand it. There was no one hundred percent certainty that this was a passenger plane. " He paused and added. "But I would rather go to jail and not shoot down."

Student years
Studying at the Faculty of Foreign Languages ​​of the University of Latvia. P. Stuchki was not “decorated” with student parties or life in a hostel (our family then lived in Riga), nor was she strictly academic - the diploma was decorated with “fives” in English and “troikas” in the history of the CPSU and scientific communism. These wonderful years filled with scent scientific library University, with tomes of the 17th century, lifted from the library's storehouses on a special elevator and medieval corners of Old Riga, traveled far and wide while studying at the courses of guide-translators left, rather, a certain feeling of involvement in European culture. A culture no less great than its own. This involvement, apparently, is not a figment of my imagination, since often - during my stay with my military husband in Germany and during a short visit to England - I heard the surprise: “Are you Russian? And you have a kind of European look. " Having forgiven ignorant Europeans for their idea of ​​Russia as a country of matryoshkas, sundresses and bears, she answered invariably: “This is because we, Russians, are very versatile.”

Siberia
It became the second - after the Baltic states - homeland, where we returned with my husband and three-year-old son after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany. Here it was finally possible to "put down roots": the Afghan husband received a plot of land in beautiful place on the Ob, two more children were born here, who consider themselves Siberians, and here the main event happened - the churching in the bosom of the Orthodox Church.

Mum
About her, my dear, is a separate conversation that cannot be put into a few lines. Widowed more than 10 years ago, getting old and “diminishing” in every possible way, she grows in spirit year after year, steadfastly bearing old age, loneliness, bitterness about her drinking son. The Lord gives her the strength to serve - she bakes prosphora - and to pray: for herself, for the living and departed relatives and friends. Once in a letter she asked me not to praise her, as it is not mentally beneficial. Fulfilling her will, I will put an end to this.

480 RUB | UAH 150 | $ 7.5 ", MOUSEOFF, FGCOLOR," #FFFFCC ", BGCOLOR," # 393939 ");" onMouseOut = "return nd ();"> Dissertation - 480 rubles, delivery 10 minutes, around the clock, seven days a week

Panova, Yulia Nikolaevna. Justification of the stages of development of rear container terminals: dissertation ... Candidate of Technical Sciences: 05.22.08 / Panova Yuliya Nikolaevna; [Place of protection: Petersburg. state un-t of ways of communication] .- St. Petersburg, 2012.- 148 p .: ill. RSL OD, 61 13-5 / 511

Introduction

Analysis of the development of container terminals in the context of the integration of the world economy 8

1.1 Characteristics of the state of container traffic in Russia and abroad 8

1.2 Trends in the development of container infrastructure 11

1.3 Analysis of the theory of development of container terminals 16

1.4 Formation of a functional list of rear container terminals of the seaports of Russia 20

1.5 Conclusions on chapter 1 27

2 Classification of factors that determine the need for the construction of rear container terminals (for example, St. Petersburg) 28

2.1 Technical factors 33

2.2 Economic factors 41

2.3 Technological factors 44

2.4 Environmental factors 46

2.5 Conclusions on Chapter 2 48

3 Taking into account the probabilistic operation of a container terminal during its stage-by-stage construction 49

3.1 Simulation modeling of technological sections of a container terminal.! 49

3.2 Formalization and Algorithmization of Problems for Modeling 52

3.3 Establishing the dependences of fluctuations in the size of movement and the probabilistic nature of service channels 59

3.4 Analysis of the limiting parameters of the container terminal 64

3.5 Conclusions on Chapter 3 69

4 Method of substantiating the step-by-step development of container terminals in the context of growing volumes of work 70

4.1 The concept of rational stages of development of rear container terminals 70

4.2 Dynamic programming method in choosing the appropriate staging of the terminal development 71

4.3 Algorithm for determining the rational stages of development of a rear container terminal 75

4.4 Preparation of initial data for solving the problem of phased development of the terminal 81

4.5 Conclusions on Chapter 4 93

5 Feasibility study of the phased development of the rear container terminal 94

5.1 Development of the rear terminal diagram and options for its technical condition 94

5.2 Formation of the matrix of capital investments and operating costs by options of the technical condition of the terminal ... 95

5.3 Choice of rational stages of development 110

5.4 Probabilistic assessment of the phased development of a rear container terminal,

5.5 Conclusions on Chapter 5 117

6 General conclusions 118

List of sources used

Introduction to work

The urgency of the problem

The need to develop transport infrastructure Russian Federation due to the growth of the country's international trade turnover in connection with its completed integration into the world economy.

The shortage of free warehouse space, typical for the largest sea container terminals in Russia, creates the preconditions for a decrease in revenues to the country's budget due to the partial transfer of economically profitable container cargo to the seaports of the neighboring Baltic countries and the Black Sea region.

Based on the generalization of foreign experience, it has been established that a successful solution to the problem of strengthening the competitive position of Russian seaports can be achieved through the development of rear terminals, allowing to provide the client with services in the same volume as in the seaport.

The formation of a rear transport infrastructure contributes to an increase in the throughput of seaports, since if it is available, it becomes possible to quickly export non-cleared goods from the port to the rear terminals for customs operations; services for loading / unloading containers, picking, packing goods, forming large cargo packages, etc. In the context of a steady growth in container flows and limited development opportunities for existing ports, the option of building a rear terminal may be the only acceptable option, although a priori one of the most costly.

In the current situation characterized by the desire to achieve the maximum economic effect and at the same time the desire to ensure the sustainable operation of the transport complex of Russia, an urgent task is to substantiate the phased development of rear container terminals. The importance of solving this problem is determined, on the one hand, by the large capital investments associated with the construction of a new terminal, and operating losses with insufficient or excessive capacity, on the other hand.

The degree of elaboration of the problem.

Fundamental issues in the development of cargo terminals and their technical characteristics reviewed by scientists such as

A. A. Abramov, A. S. Balalaev, A. T. Deribas, V. V. Dybskaya, L. A. Kogan,
Yu. T. Kozlov, L. A. Krasikova, A. L. Kuznetsov, V. N. Kustov,

B. S. Lukinsky, O. B. Malikov, F. A. Pladis, V. V. Povorozhenko,
A. M. Pospelov, V. I. Sergeev, T. G. Sergeeva, M. D. Sitnik, A. A. Smekhov,

A. L. Stepanov, M. N. Terterov, V. A. Shkurin, and other scientists and specialists. Aspects of the development of rear terminals in Europe, Asia, North America, South Africa, Australia were reflected in the works of foreign scientists: A. Beresford, J. Woxenius, G. Gujar, C. Caballini, M. Matsia (M Matthee, C. Macharis, A. Ng, T. Notteboom, S. Pettit, D.-P. J.-P. Rodrigue, V. Roso, B. Slack.

The analysis of domestic and foreign experience in the development of cargo terminals showed that the theoretical and practical aspects of the construction of rear container terminals have not been sufficiently studied by Russian scientists so far, which indicates the need for further research.

The purpose of the dissertation research is the development of a method for substantiating the rational staging of the development of rear container terminals with a steady increase in the volume of their work.

To achieve this goal, the following main tasks were solved in the dissertation work:

generalized theoretical studies in the development of container terminals;

analyzed the main factors that determine the need and feasibility of building rear container terminals;

a probabilistic description of the operation of technological sections of container terminals by the method of discrete-event simulation in the AnyLogic software environment is proposed;

a general method for substantiating the phased development of terminals has been developed;

a practical check of the proposed method for choosing a rational stage of development of container terminals was carried out taking into account the stochastic nature traffic flows.

Research methods. To solve the problems posed in the thesis, the methods of graph theory, imitation discrete-event modeling, probability theory and mathematical statistics, dynamic programming were used.

The object of research is cargo handling structures on the network of interacting sea and rail transport modes.

Subject of study- methods and models of the phased development of cargo handling structures of the transport network.

Research in progress within the boundaries points of interaction of sea and rail transport (rear container terminals).

Scientific novelty the research performed is as follows:

Discrete-event simulation models of a checkpoint and a cargo railway front of a container terminal have been developed for automated analysis of their parameters when external influences change.

A method for substantiating the stages of development of a rear container terminal based on dynamic programming is proposed.

A probabilistic assessment of the development stages was carried out, based on the introduction of a risk adjustment to the discount rate.

Practical significance dissertation work consists in the possibility of using the proposed method by design and scientific organizations.

Approbation of the results of the dissertation research.

Research materials were reported and received a positive assessment at ten international and five all-Russian scientific and practical conferences held in Latvia (Riga), Poland (Katowice), Russia (Vladivostok, St. Petersburg, Khabarovsk) , Finland (Kotka, Kouvola, Lappeenranta, Turku). The main provisions of the work were also reported, discussed and approved at the meetings of the department "Logistics and commercial work" FSBEI HPE "St. Petersburg State University of Railways" in 2011-2012.

The dissertation proposals were used in the form of recommendations by the development department of OJSC Petrolesport in the development of projects for the construction of rear container terminals and the implementation of their feasibility study, which is confirmed by the act on the implementation of the results.

Publications. In total, 12 publications have been published on the topic of the dissertation, including five in peer-reviewed publications included in the list of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation.

The structure and scope of the thesis. The dissertation work consists of an introduction, five chapters, a conclusion, a bibliography of 156 titles, three annexes, presented on 148 pages and contains 25 tables and 22 figures.

Container infrastructure development trends

As noted above, with an increase in the processing volumes of seaports, the load on the port transport networks, involved in their maintenance, increases. The share of road and rail transport in servicing seaports is highly uneven across the regions of Russia.

The growth of rail container traffic in the direction of seaports is largely due to the introduction and widespread dissemination of the technology of accelerated block container trains. The largest railway container operator in Russia is OJSC Transcontainer, which owns 24 thousand fitting platforms and more than 60 thousand large-tonnage containers. In 2007, TransContainer transported 1.3 million TEUs by Russian railways, of which 0.48 million TEU was in international traffic.

To develop container traffic using the Trans-Siberian Railway, Russian Railways OJSC developed in 2009 the Transsib in 7 days program. Within the framework of this program, the first fast-track container train was dispatched from the port of Nakhodka-Vostochnaya on November 11, 2011 at 11 o'clock and arrived in Shushary on November 18, the program will eat in 6 days 16 hours - faster than provided for in "Transsib in 7 days".

The steady trend of increasing container traffic indicates the need to solve the problems of developing container infrastructure, which were removed from the agenda during the crisis period. The problem of the development of container terminal infrastructure deserves special attention, the state of which affects the processing volumes of growing container flows.

A significant increase in terminal infrastructure was noted in the period 1972-1980, when railways The USSR put into operation 107 specialized container points to carry out operations with large-tonnage containers with a gross weight of 20 and 30 tons, which made it possible to increase the volume of cargo transportation in containers by railway transport up to 8.3 million tons.

In total, 708 container terminals operate on the railway network of the Russian Federation, including 298 for handling large-capacity containers and 653 for medium-capacity containers. Approximately 70% of container points are characterized by a small volume of work (10-20 containers per day). At 30% of the container points 60% of the total volume of work is carried out. Among the major container points are Art. Kuntsevo-P, Moscow-Tovarny-Paveletskaya, Chelyabinsk-cargo, Khabarovsk, St. Petersburg-Tovarny-Vitebsky. According to other bibliographic data, there are about 44 large container terminals for processing large-capacity containers in the Russian Railways system, and the demand for them is three times higher than this figure.

The need to create a fundamentally new system of freight traffic management based on terminal technology and logistics principles of commodity movement was noted in the works of V.I.Sergeev, A.S. Balalaeva. According to V.I. Sergeev, the strategy for the formation of regional systems of logistics services should be based on a phased creation around major cities and on the territory of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, a network of cargo storage and cargo handling terminals and multimodal terminal complexes for multipurpose purposes, as well as logistics centers that manage and coordinate their work through unified information support and telecommunications.

This goal was further developed in the Concept of creating terminal and logistics centers (TLC) on the territory of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. The creation of a TLC network based on the infrastructure of Russian railways is essentially national project the formation of terminal and logistics infrastructure according to the scenario of innovative development.

Attraction of investments in the development of the terminal and warehouse complex in Russia is due to the expansion of the scale of transportation activities of JSC Russian Railways and the need to attract highly profitable container cargoes to rail transport, which, as already noted, have a high potential for Russia.

Thus, in the context of the growing volumes of foreign trade container cargo flows, the task of proper development of the Russian transport complex, primarily container terminals, is receiving more and more attention, including at the state level. The concept for the development of terminal and warehouse activities of Russian Railways states that the first-stage TLC network will allow attracting an additional 100-120 million tons of cargo to rail transport. Due to the use of only large-tonnage containers with a gross weight of 20 and 24 tons (20-feet) and a gross weight of 30 IT (40-feet) in foreign trade cargo flows, the development of a network of terminals for processing large-tonnage containers is a priority for

Technological factors

The existing cargo turnover of the port of St. Petersburg is about million tons, including about 20 million tons - container cargo. The largest container terminals located within the port are I CJSC First Container Terminal (PKT), OJSC Petrolesport and CJSC Fourth Stevedoring Company. According to the Strategy for the Development of Sea Port Infrastructure until 2030, PKT CJSC will handle over 4 million tons of container cargo, Petrolesport OJSC - 23.2 million tons, Fourth Stevedoring Company CJSC - 10.5 million tons. stable and reliable connection seaport with the hinterland, it will be extremely difficult to provide cargo owners and operators with adequate quality services. The quality of the internal accessibility of a seaport is an important characteristic that influences the assessment І of its competitiveness. Therefore, during the development of seaports, it is also necessary to design the rear terminal infrastructure, that is, the infrastructure of inland areas, as a rule, remote from the coast] in which traffic flows, following through the seaport, originate and are extinguished. For this reason, both the land approaches to the port and the rear terminal infrastructure are rapidly developing abroad.

It should be noted that the increase in port cargo turnover leads to an almost proportional increase in traffic flows in the port areas. Therefore, in order to service the growing cargo flows of the port in St. Petersburg, it is planned to develop the Western High-Speed ​​Diameter (WHSD) - toll road, the construction of which began in 2005. At the end of 2012, the 1st northern section of the WHSD will be put into operation, which will connect the first and second districts of the port with the Ring Road (KAD). However, due to the absence of the WHSD connection to the third and fourth districts of the port, where the main container capacities are concentrated, bottlenecks in the operation of port transport networks used to service these areas may be points of exit and entry to the Western High-Speed ​​Diameter, where pay. To avoid a deterioration in the transport situation in the future, it is necessary to start the process of transferring port facilities from the city center to the inland regions right now. That is, it is necessary to develop rear container terminals, which will make it possible to transfer the maximum possible volume of cargo operations outside the seaport, providing the greatest increase in its throughput in the absence of the possibility of developing port infrastructure, and also create preconditions for reducing the load on port highways by switching freight traffic from road transport to the railway during transportation between the seaport and the rear terminal.

Remarkable in this respect is the study carried out among foreign respondents representing rear terminals. Based on the analysis of the survey carried out, it was found that among the factors that determine the development of rear terminals, an increase in production capacity port is on last place in order of importance, while improving the quality of customer service is the main one. This is due to the fact that many foreign rear terminals were developed with the support or entirely at the expense of regional municipalities, which pursued the goal of attracting new enterprises to the region through this logistic solution (construction of rear terminals). In addition to the indicated factors, barriers to the construction of rear terminals have been investigated. It turned out that in the case of neglecting the problem associated with significant financial investments in the development of the terminal project, more than 50% of the objects studied did not experience difficulties in the implementation and operation of the rear terminals.

Based on the study of large-scale studies devoted to the development of rear container terminals, the factors of their construction were analyzed and classified according to the "ABC" method (Figure 2.1). The essence of the "ABC" method is to select the most significant from the point of view of the designated goal from the entire set of similar objects. As the designated task, the need to meet the growing demand for the processing of containerized cargo and improve the quality of customer service was taken. Therefore, technical factors are identified as priority ones, followed by economic, technological and environmental factors.

Analysis of the limiting parameters of the container terminal

The throughput of the terminal checkpoint can be found from the t of the proposed expression: -49 I „„ „(1440-ґ) n tech / oosl p (3.1) where A, the time of technological breaks in the checkpoint, n is the number of lanes for cars; t - service time taking into account "- coefficient of uneven arrival Vehicle to the terminal.

V general view the formula for determining the processing capacity of the cargo front can be written as follows: T -p (3.2) k_ waiting; where T is the operating time of the cargo front during the day, h \ n is the number of conventional wagons in one feed or route composition; t „, ty is the average time of supply and removal of wagons for the cargo front, h. In turn, the time for performing cargo operations has the form: _ nm (3.3) У Ч where у is the number of loading and unloading mechanisms serving the cargo front; t - the number of containers placed on the railway platform; q is the duration of one cycle, sec., is determined as the sum of the time spent on the execution of cycle operations (slinging, lifting, moving, etc.). The characteristics of the unevenness of automobile flows and car flows, as a rule, are specified in the form of unevenness coefficients, or in the form of a more complex mathematical description of the regularities of freight flows, taking into account their stochastic nature (distribution laws). The first of these methods is more common, but less accurate, the second gives more reliable data, but is practically not used yet due to the lack of a working method.

The first method for calculating the throughput (processing) capacity of checkpoints and cargo fronts is based on the assumption that cargo flows are stationary and regular. In this case, the unevenness is taken into account roughly by introducing the unevenness coefficient. In reality, the arrival of cars and wagons can be uneven and have a stochastic (random) nature, both in terms of the time of arrival of vehicles and the time of their service at the checkpoint. The coefficients do not reflect the correct physical essence of the phenomenon of unevenness, which is objective for a modern economy and depends on many factors of a technical, organizational, economic and social nature.

In addition, fluctuations in the load of transport systems also affect the change in the throughput (processing) capacity of systems compared to the constant load of service channels. To more accurately take into account the specific factors and features of uneven car and car flows and the probabilistic mode of operation of service devices in the calculations of the required throughput (processing) capacity of checkpoints of terminals and cargo fronts, modern methods of simulation can be used. Simulation modeling (MI) is a process of building a generalized computer model of a system with an algorithmic description of the basic rules of its behavior.

Simulation methods have developed significantly in recent decades. According to the studies carried out to study the frequency of application of simulation methods in the field of production and business, it turned out that in 2010 discrete-event modeling became the most common approach.

In recent years, there have also been significant shifts in the field of creating tools for computer simulation available to the mass user. One of the most modern and most powerful is AnyLogic, which provides the user with a convenient and intelligent environment for mathematical research. At the origins of the development of Anylogic software is a group of scientists from St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, whose research success initiated the creation of the Russian company AnyLogic LLC "Ex JayTechnologies" (XJ Technologies) with a central office in St. Petersburg and two branches in Europe and North America ... Anylogic models can be based on any of the main simulation paradigms: system dynamics, discrete-event modeling and agent-based modeling, which is the main advantage of this software product.

Formation of a matrix of capital investments and operating costs by options for the technical condition of the terminal

In the context of a shortage of capital investments, the strategy of the phased development of terminals allows to resolve the contradiction between the desire to achieve the maximum economic effect and the desire to ensure the stable operation of the transport and technological chain (TLC) rear terminal - seaport - large suppliers of export products. That is, to find a rational solution to the equation with two variables, the result of which is determined by capital investments in the construction of a new terminal and operating costs in the event of a shortage (excess) of its capacity.

The initial prerequisites for the phased development of rear terminals are: a stable trend of growth in the volume of transportation work in time, the objective nature of the existence of a rational trajectory for increasing the capacity of devices, the organic connection of the stages of development of an individual container terminal with the rationalization of the development of the transport and logistics chain, in which the interaction of links is carried out mainly through the railway. transport.

The choice of options for the technical condition and technological support of the container terminal in time is carried out on the basis of the dynamic programming method. For the first time the term "dynamic programming" appeared in the works of R. Bellman in the mid-50s.

The advantage of this method is the ability to split the computational process for finding a rational solution into separate steps, which significantly reduces the dimension of the problem.

The studies have shown the fundamental possibility of rational timing of power amplification with a nonlinear dependence of operating costs on time, varying over a 20-year period. ID Bulavchenko (NIIZhT), using the example of a district station, proved that the timing of expedient development depends on the size and growth rate of cargo turnover and is not uniform. According to Yu.N. Nayashkov (MIIT), the only characteristic of a marshalling yard that determines its condition is its capacity (i.e. throughput and processing capacity). It should be noted that the author's works were a significant contribution to the development of the theory of rationalization of the development of marshalling yards, despite some simplifications (for example, an artificial reduction in the number of development stages to 3-4). Further development the problem of the stages in the construction of marshalling yards received in the works of P.S. Guntova (BelIIZhT). Among further developments in this area, a special place is occupied by research carried out by E.V. Arkhangelsk (VNIIZhT) and the basis for the Guidelines for the stage-by-stage development of one-way marshalling yards and the determination of the required capital investments for this. His studies are distinguished by the thorough study of issues related to the determination of operating costs (for the first time, additional operating costs arising in connection with the performance of construction work during the operation of the station were taken into account), the completeness and correctness of the calculation of which is a decisive factor when choosing measures to strengthen the technical equipment of stations and the timing their implementation. However, in the works of E.V. Arkhangelsk, an attempt was made to combine a dynamic approach with a static approach when setting the timing for the development of tracks in parks only in the 5th, 10th or 15th year of operation. -72 In the works of A.N. Koreshkov (MIIT), the issues of rational stages of development of a sorting complex at a one-way sorting station are considered. The development of marshalling yards with long-term planning in the course of increasing the carrying capacity of railways was considered by E.A. Sotnikov (VNIIZhT), who systematized schemes, track development and technical equipment of stations, described in the form of 352 possible states, in order to address the issues of stages of development. Taking into account the research of E.A. Sotnikov, further tasks of the development of one-way marshalling yards by the method of dynamic programming were reflected in the works of V.A. Ardashin, I. T. Kozlova, N.A. Tuzhilkina.

In the research of N.V. Pravdin (BelIIZhT) gives a clear description of the economic and mathematical process of the stage-by-stage development of the marshalling yard. However, the author did not take into account the non-linear dependence of capital investments on the number of tracks laid at a certain stage (the cost of laying one track and a turnout was taken constant), as well as additional operating costs arising from construction work in the "window".

It is clearly seen from the above that in the scientific works of the authors, the method of dynamic programming has found wide application in solving issues of development and reorganization of railway marshalling and district stations.

In the works of N.V. Tulyakova (PTU PS), the method of dynamic programming is considered in the context of substantiating the stages of development of the station in a market economy, characterized by the presence of transition periods from recessions in the volume of work to their growth. The choice of a rational plant option (a decrease or increase in its capacity) under these conditions is selected on the basis of two assumptions: before the start of the decline, as in the period of growth in the volume of work, and after the start of the decline, depending on the duration of the decline period. In the studies of L.A. Oleinikova (PGUPS), the choice of a rational stage of development of the station in a market economy is considered on the example of a marshalling yard, in particular, the expediency of switching from a one-way scheme to a two-way one and vice versa is determined (depending on the dynamics of changes in the volume of processing of cars).

1 Analysis of the development of container terminals in the context of the integration of the world economy.

1.1 Characteristics of the state of container traffic in Russia and abroad.

1.2 Trends in the development of container infrastructure.

1.3 Analysis of the theory of development of container terminals.

1.4 Formation of a functional list of rear container terminals of the seaports of Russia.

1.5 Conclusions on chapter 1.

2 Classification of factors that determine the need for the construction of rear container terminals (on the example of St. Petersburg).

2.1 Technical factors.

2.2 Economic factors.

2.3 Technological factors.

2.4 Environmental factors.

2.5 Conclusions on chapter 2.

3 Taking into account the probabilistic operation of a container terminal during its stage-by-stage construction.

3.1 Simulation modeling of technological sections of a container terminal.!.

3.2 Formalization and algorithmization of tasks for modeling.

3.3 Determination of the dependences of fluctuations in the size of movement and the probabilistic nature of service channels.

3.4 Analysis of the limiting parameters of the container terminal.

3.5 Conclusions on chapter 3.

4 Method of substantiating the step-by-step development of container terminals in conditions of growing volumes of work.

4.1 The concept of the rational staging of the development of rear container terminals.

4.2 Method of Dynamic Programming in the choice of the appropriate staging of the terminal development.

4.3 Algorithm for determining the rational stages of development of the rear container terminal.

4.4 Preparation of initial data for solving the problem of phased development of the terminal,

4.5 Conclusions on chapter 4.

5 Feasibility study of the phased development of the rear container terminal.

5.1 Development of the rear terminal diagram and options for its technical condition

5.2 Formation of a matrix of capital investments and operating costs by options of the terminal's technical condition.

5.3 Choice of rational stages of development.

5.4 Probabilistic assessment of the phased development of a rear container terminal,

5.5 Conclusion 1 according to chapter 5.

Recommended list of dissertations in the specialty "Management of transportation processes", 05.22.08 code VAK

• Methodology for technological design of container distribution centers 2011, Doctor of Technical Sciences Kuznetsov, Alexander Lvovich

• Methodology for organizing trans-Siberian international container traffic Europe - Asia in transit through Russia 2013, Doctor of Technical Sciences Parshina, Raisa Nikolaevna

• Development of methods for parameterization of container terminals based on logistics principles 2001, Candidate of Technical Sciences Sinitsyna, Anna Sergeevna

• Improving the efficiency of container transportation management in the maritime transport of Russia 2011, Candidate of Economic Sciences Kuznetsov, Stanislav Mikhailovich

• Increasing the efficiency of container transportation in transport 2005, candidate of economic sciences Moskvichev, Oleg Valerievich

Dissertation introduction (part of the abstract) on the topic "Substantiation of the stages of development of rear container terminals"

Conclusion of the thesis on the topic "Management of transportation processes", Panova, Yulia Nikolaevna

List of dissertation research literature Candidate of Technical Sciences Panova, Yulia Nikolaevna, 2012

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Dissertation abstract on the topic "Substantiation of the stages of development of rear container terminals"

As a manuscript

Panova Yulia Nikolaevna

Justification of the stages of development of rear container terminals

Specialty 05.22.08 - Management of transportation processes

dissertation for the degree of candidate of technical sciences

Saint Petersburg 2012

The work was carried out at the Department of "Logistics and Commercial Work" of the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "St. Petersburg State University of Railways".

Scientific adviser - candidate of technical sciences, associate professor

Korovyakovsky Evgeny Konstantinovich.

Official opponents: Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor,

Head of the Department of Ports and Cargo Terminals, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "State Maritime Academy named after Admiral S. O. Makarov "Kirichenko Alexander Viktorovich;

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Operations Management, FSBEI HPE "St. Petersburg State Transport University" Nikiforova Guzel Islyamovna.

Leading organization - FBOU VPO "St. Petersburg

State University of Water Communications ".

The defense will take place on December 24, 2012 at th. ^ 0 min. at a meeting of the dissertation council D 218.008.02 on the basis of the St. Petersburg State University of Railways at the address: 190031, St. Petersburg, Moskovsky pr., 9, room. 7-320.

The thesis can be found in the library of the St. Petersburg State University of Railways.

Scientific Secretary

dissertation council

Ph.D., associate professor

Alexey Gorbachev

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF WORK

The urgency of the problem

The need to develop the transport infrastructure of the Russian Federation is due to the growth of the country's international trade turnover in connection with its completed integration into the world economy.

The shortage of free warehouse space, typical for the largest sea container terminals in Russia, creates the preconditions for a decrease in revenues to the country's budget due to the partial transfer of economically profitable container cargo to the seaports of the neighboring Baltic countries and the Black Sea region.

Based on the generalization of foreign experience, it has been established that a successful solution to the problem of strengthening the competitive position of Russian seaports can be achieved through the development of rear terminals that allow providing the client with services in the same volume as in the seaport.

The formation of a rear transport infrastructure contributes to an increase in the throughput of seaports, since if it is available, it becomes possible to quickly export non-cleared goods from the port to the rear terminals for customs operations; services for loading / unloading containers, picking, packing goods, forming large cargo packages, etc. In the context of a steady growth in container flows and limited development opportunities for existing ports, the option of building a rear terminal may be the only acceptable option, although a priori one of the most costly.

In the current situation, characterized by the desire to achieve the maximum economic effect and the desire at the same time to ensure the stable operation of the transport complex of Russia, an urgent task is to justify the phased development of rear container terminals. The importance of solving this problem is determined, on the one hand, by the large capital investments associated with the construction of a new terminal, and operating losses with insufficient or excessive capacity, on the other hand.

The degree of elaboration of the problem.

Fundamental issues of the development of cargo terminals and their technical characteristics are considered by such scientists as

A. A. Abramov, A. S. Balalaev, A. T. Deribas, V. V. Dybskaya, L. A. Kogan, Yu. T. Kozlov, L. A. Krasikova, A. L. Kuznetsov, V. N. Kustov,

B. S. Lukinsky, O. B. Malikov, F. A. Pladis, V. V. Povorozhenko, A. M. Pospelov, V. I. Sergeev, T. G. Sergeeva, M. D. Sitnik, A. A. Smekhov,

A. JI. Stepanov, M. N. Terterov, V. A. Shkurin, and other scientists and specialists. Aspects of the development of rear terminals in Europe, Asia, North America, South Africa, Australia are reflected in the works of foreign scientists: A. Beresford, J. Woxenius, G. Gujar, C. Caballini, M. Matthee, C. Macharis, A. Ng, T. Notteboom, S. Petgita (S . Pettit), D.-P. Rodrigue (J.-P. Rodrigue), B. Poco (V. Roso), B. Slack (B. Slack).

The purpose of the dissertation research is to develop a method for substantiating the rational staging of the development of rear container terminals with a steady increase in the volume of their work.

To achieve this goal, the following main tasks were solved in the dissertation work:

A probabilistic description of the operation of technological sections of container terminals is proposed by the method of discrete-event simulation in the AnyLogic software environment;

The subject of the research is methods and models of the stage-by-stage development of cargo-processing structures of the transport network.

The study is carried out within the boundaries of the points of interaction of sea and rail transport modes (rear container terminals).

The scientific novelty of the performed research is as follows:

1. Discrete-event simulation models of the checkpoint and the cargo railway front of the container terminal have been developed for the automated analysis of their parameters when external influences change.

Approbation of the results of the dissertation research.

Research materials were reported and received a positive assessment at ten international and five all-Russian scientific and practical conferences held in Latvia (Riga), Poland (Katowice), Russia (Vladivostok, St. Petersburg, Khabarovsk) , Finland (Kotka, Kouvola, Lapeenranta, Turku). The main provisions of the work were also reported, discussed and approved at the meetings of the department "Logistics and commercial work" FSBEI HPE "St. Petersburg State University of Railways" in 2011-2012.

In the introduction, the relevance of the topic of the dissertation work is substantiated, the goal and main tasks are formulated, and research methods are determined.

The first chapter reveals the concept of a rear container terminal and its significance for the market economy, in which the problem of increasing the country's competitiveness in the field of transport services associated with the movement of growing material flows is becoming more and more urgent. In the indicator of transport and communication infrastructure, taken into account in the index of Russia's competitiveness in the world market, one of the bottlenecks is the level of development of the port infrastructure, according to which the country is in 97th place in the list of 142 countries.

The analysis of the Russian container transportation market has revealed the largest sea container terminals and ports in Russia, the limited capacity of which, in the face of growing volumes of work, is the reason for the lost income of Russian companies. Foreign experience shows that in the absence of the possibility of developing port infrastructure, the creation of rear terminals is expedient. Seven years ago, more than 570 logistic terminals operated in the United States, more than 200 in Europe, of which only in Sweden there were more than 13 logistic container terminals serving the seaport of Gothenburg. And in China, where the most productive ports in the world are located, at the beginning of 2012 their number exceeded 50. The tendency to create rear container terminals is also spreading on the Russian market, more than ten of which are already interacting with the leading container handling seaport Big Port of St. Petersburg ".

Taking into account the specifics of Russia's foreign trade cargo flows, in which the share of Russian export cargo is 75%, and the level of their containerization does not exceed 6%, the development of logistics terminals using modern equipment will create preconditions for increasing the share of highly profitable containerized cargo in Russian exports and, consequently, increasing receipts in the country's budget. These circumstances determined the direction of further research.

In the second chapter, the classification of factors that determine the need for the construction of rear container terminals is carried out. From the point of view of the designated task (meeting the growing needs of customers and improving the quality of their service), the main

the technical factors are determined, followed by economic, technological and environmental factors in terms of importance (Fig. 1).

Figure 1 - Factors that determine the need for the construction of rear container terminals

When analyzing technical factors, the methods of increasing the seaport capacity were compared (expansion of the container site, construction of a rear terminal, increase in the height of the container stack). Taking into account GOST 20260 - 80, the safety factor and SNiP 2.01.07-85, a method has been developed for calculating the maximum permissible number of tiers of loaded and empty containers in a stack.

To determine the economic efficiency of reducing emissions from trucks that pollute the atmosphere, in the case of using accelerated block container trains between the rear container terminal and the seaport, a generalized algorithm for calculating environmental costs is proposed.

In the third chapter of the dissertation work, the tasks related to taking into account the internal limiting factors of the container terminal during its stage-by-stage development are considered. To establish the dependences of fluctuations in the size of movement and the probabilistic nature of the service channels, it was necessary to use a discrete-event

simulation modeling using probability theory and mathematical statistics.

Insufficient efficiency of operation of technological sections (freight railway fronts (GF), checkpoints (checkpoints)) significantly affects the processing capacity of the container terminal.

The throughput of the terminal checkpoint is determined from the recommended expression:

where the time of technological breaks in the operation of the checkpoint, n is the number of lanes for cars; (both are the service time, taking into account the waiting time, k, is the coefficient of uneven arrival of cars at the terminal.

A detailed assessment of the parameters of the checkpoint, GF in the conditions arising during the stage-by-stage development of the container terminal was carried out in the ArtyLogic software environment. With the developed discrete-event models that simulate the operation of these technological sections, multiple computer experiments were carried out, in which the intensity of the arrival of cars / wagons (requests) in the queuing system and the time of their service were varied. These characteristics were set in the form of a mathematical description of the regularities taking into account their stochastic nature (Poisson distribution, exponential and other distribution laws), allowing to determine the most difficult operating conditions of technological sections.

The fourth chapter of the thesis is devoted to the development of a general method for substantiating the stages of development of rear container terminals. To select a rational phasing in the development of the terminal in conditions of growing volumes of work, the method of dynamic programming was used, which was proposed in the late 1950s. R. Bellman and found wide application in the transport industry in the scientific works of V. M. Akulinichev, V. A. Ardashin, E. V. Arkhangelsky, A. V. Bykadorov, I. D. Bulavchenko, A. V. Gorinov, P S. Gruntova, V. G. Dziuba,

Yu. I. Efimenko, I. T. Kozlova, A. N. Koreshkova, D. N. Kukleva, A. V. Mineeva, Yu. P. Nayashkova, V. Ya. Negreya, L. A. Oleinikova,

N. V. Pravdina, E. I. Sycheva, N. A. Tuzhilkina, N. V. Tulyakova, I. V. Turbina, E. A. Sotnikova, Ar. V. Sugorovsky and others.

Under a rational version of the stages of development of terminals

one should understand such a sequence of measures to change their technical condition and such time frames for the implementation of these measures, which, together with the accepted technology of work for the settlement period T, provide a minimum of total reduced costs, which reflect the criterion of target efficiency. "

E = X Kos + £ C a -> 111111, (2)

r = 0 "1 ¿= 0" "

where K, C are capital investments and operating costs at step a, respectively (is the cost discount coefficient.

At a constant discount rate, the discount factor has

where E is the discount rate.

In order to take into account the uncertainty of the project implementation conditions, the discount rate can be adjusted by the amount of the risk adjustment p:

E = (E + P) (4)

To solve the problem of choosing a rational stage of development, the projected terminal is considered as a physical system 51, and changing or maintaining the state of the terminal at time I is a control (// (/), as a result of which the terminal goes into another state O *]) or remains unchanged (1 =]). For each state of the terminal and year of operation< соответствует величина годовых эксплуатационных costs С, п which is part of the performance criterion. To transfer the terminal from one state to Sj (/ * /), certain capital investments Ki are required, which make up the second part of the efficiency criterion.

For a new container terminal, the values ​​of the efficiency criterion when choosing conditionally optimal transitions at the first step are determined as follows:

E ™ t = mTe12 (C712) = /: 1 + Cca1 + ^ 1 ^ 2a1;

eifb = kg + sia \\

E ° "m = pcb, n (u") = Kx + cc, 1, u 1

A1, u (E / 2> = A: 2 + Civ1 + A: 2-

Eppt g- \ opt g ~ \ optp g- \ opt

n, ^ 1,2,. ■, - the minimum values ​​of the given

costs at the end of the first step of calculations corresponding to the options

technical condition B ¡2, ■> .......... L "/, K2, .., ..... -

capital investments required for the development of the terminal at the beginning of the billing period for options B g, ..., B „; n - the number of options for the technical condition of the terminal

To search for an efficiency criterion and conditionally optimal transitions, the "Kiev broom" algorithm is used - one of the most effective algorithms for solving problems described by recurrent relations. A block diagram of the algorithm, which reflects the implementation of this procedure, is shown in Figure 2. Within the framework of this algorithm, a generalized base-index method is proposed for calculating capital investments.

Figure 2 - Block diagram of the algorithm for choosing the rational staging of the terminal development

In the fifth chapter, a practical test of the developed method of substantiating the choice of a rational stage in the development of a rear container terminal is carried out. In this case, the following initial data were taken: the number of technical condition options (n) - six (Table 1); billing period (G) - 20 years; discount rate (E) - 0.08; matrix of capital investments, calculated on the basis of the proposed generalized basic-index method (Table 2), matrix of operating costs (Table 3).

Table 1 - Variants of the technical condition of the container terminal

Option number Implemented activities (in addition to the previous options)

1 Container yard No. 1, terminal checkpoint, transformer substation, terminal fencing, power supply, utility rooms for machine operators and loaders, road embankment for an access road, lifting and transport equipment, water supply, sewerage, heating unit, communications.

2 A site for the inspection of containers, a covered warehouse, a site for turning and parking, lifting and transport equipment, an access road, service and technical buildings.

3 Container yard # 2, terminal fencing, areas for container repair and car turn-around, handling equipment.

4 Container platform No. 3, access, exhibition and loading and unloading railways, level crossings, handling equipment.

5 Container yard No. 4, level crossings, loading and unloading railways, lifting and transport equipment.

6 Loading and unloading railway track, lifting and transport equipment, road for the circular traffic of cars.

All variants are numbered according to the principle of increasing processing capacity of the terminal. Each subsequent option is a logical continuation of the previous one and includes activities implemented in all previous options.

For the example under consideration, the transition from each variant of the technical state is possible to all other variants with a large serial number. This is reflected in the table. 2, where all the elements of the matrix lying above the diagonal are filled with the pre-calculated values ​​of the capital investments required for the corresponding transitions.

Initial variant of the technical condition Capital investments required for the transition to variants, mln rub.

1 0 354 592 780 955 1017

2 0 0 359 548 722 784

3 0 0 0 310 485 546

4 0 0 0 1! 296 358

5 0 0 0 0 11118111 183

When determining the operating costs, the costs proportional to the volume of work were taken into account, which differ by years of the billing period and options for the technical condition: mileage, idle time of vehicles, processing of containers at the terminal, shunting, maintenance of permanent devices (Table 3).

Table 3 - Matrix of operating costs

Year of operation Annual operating costs by options for the technical condition of the terminal, mln. Rub.

1 57 117 148 169 198 200

2 115 129 162 185 216 218

3 177 165 177 202 236 237

4 255 177 193 220 257 258

5 359 190 211 241 282 281

6 449 204 233 266 311 309

7 538 220 256 292 342 338

8 654 236 283 323 377 370

18 3805 2381 1908 1438 1241 989

19 4608 2815 2326 1827 1388 1093

20 5231 3222 2713 2181 1700 1197

The calculation results allow us to construct a complete development transition graph, a fragment of which is shown in Fig. 3, and the graph of the rational staging of the terminal development (A-X) (Fig. 4). The arcs corresponding to conditionally optimal transitions are marked with crosses, and the values ​​of the efficiency criterion are reflected in the transition nodes.

Figure 3 - Fragment of the transition graph for the first four years of operation

According to the found trajectory of the terminal development (Fig. 3.4), the best option its technical condition at the beginning of the billing period is the second (Table 1). It is advisable to keep this option until the end of the 9th year of operation, after which, in the 10th year, it is necessary to switch to the fourth option of technical equipment. Then, the terminal's capacity should be increased in accordance with the chosen expedient trajectory (A-X) and the developed options for the technical condition.

Figure 4 - Schedule of the rational staging of the terminal development (E = 0.08)

With this development of the terminal with an annual processing capacity of 884 thousand containers in twenty-foot equivalent, the total minimum reduced costs for the entire twenty-year period will amount to approximately 2.6 billion rubles. It should be noted that any deviation from the timing of the introduction of the next stages will lead to an increase in the total amount of the reduced costs.

When substantiating the staged development of rear container terminals, it is necessary to take into account the inflation rate, risk factors and uncertainties associated with the inaccuracy of forecasting the volume of transportation work. Therefore, the discount rate (E = 0.16; 0.24) includes the minimum guaranteed level of profitability, the level of inflation and project risk. On the basis of the “risk adjustment” method and the constructed graphs of the stages of development of the container terminal, the dependence of the change in the timing of the implementation of the measures provided for by the project on the discount rate was established (Fig. 5).

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Years of phased construction and exp> vtacki

Figure 5 - Graphs of the stages of development of the container terminal at different rates of discount (E = 0.1b; 0.24) 13

The use of the discount rate, taking into account inflation and risk, leads to an increase in the number of stages of development and a postponement of the timing of the introduction of new activities (Fig. 5).

CONCLUSION

The performed research allows us to draw the following main conclusions:

1.With Russia's accession to the WTO, a steady increase in export-import cargo flows should be expected, therefore, the construction of rear container terminals, especially near large port cities, is one of the effective ways to solve the problem of a deficit in the processing capacity of seaports.

2. Analysis of the factors that make it necessary to build rear terminals shows that they can be divided into technical, economic, technological and environmental. The most significant of them, from the point of view of meeting the demand for processing the growing cargo traffic, are technical factors.

3. To ensure the specified processing capacity of container terminals, it is necessary to organize the effective operation of checkpoints and freight railway fronts, for which the simulation models proposed in the thesis can be recommended, describing the modes of their operation and allowing, using control actions, to determine the most stable parameters of these technological sections ...

4. To substantiate the step-by-step development of container terminals in the context of growing volumes of work, it is advisable to use the dynamic programming method, which has found wide application in the transport sector to solve similar problems.

5. To prepare an array of initial capital investments and a matrix of capital investments in its construction, it is recommended to use the generalized base-index method, which is the most accurate in calculating the cost determined by construction estimates and including direct costs, overhead costs and estimated profit.

6. The expected economic effect from the implementation of the proposed method of phased development of the terminal at a discount rate of E = 0.08 in the considered example with an annual processing capacity of 884 thousand containers in a twenty-foot equivalent amounted to 870 million rubles. or 25% of the amount required for the introduction of all complexes and devices in one stage.

7. Any deviation from the timeframes for the commissioning of the next stages of construction found according to the rational trajectory of development leads to an increase in the total amount of the reduced costs.

8. When solving the problem of substantiating the stages of development of rear container terminals, it is necessary to take into account the risk factors associated with the inaccuracy of forecasting the future volumes of transportation work. For this purpose, the value of the risk adjustment should be added to the discount rate. The introduction of a risk adjustment leads, as a rule, to an increase in the number of development stages and a delay in the timing of the introduction of regular activities.

PUBLICATIONS ON THE THEME OF DISSERTATION

1. Panova Yu.N., Korovyakovsky E.K., Titova T.S. Environmental aspects of the implementation of rear terminals // Bulletin of the Petersburg University of Railways. SPb .: Petersburg State. un-t of ways of communication. - Issue. 3 (28). - 2011. - S. 15-23.

2. Panova Yu.N., Korovyakovskiy EK, Groshev GM On the issue of the stages of development of terminals with growing volumes of container flows // Bulletin of the Petersburg University of Railways. SPb .: Petersburg State. un-t of ways of communication. - Issue. 4 (29). - 2011. - S. 7-15.

3. Panova Yu.N., Korovyakovsky, E.K. Factors in the construction of rear container terminals // Bulletin of TOGU. - No. 1 (24). -2012. - S.103-112.

4. Panova Yu.N., Korovyakovsky E.K. Methods for increasing the throughput of sea container ports // Bulletin of RGUPS-№2 (46). -2012 .- S. 139-144.

5. Panova Yu.N. Economic assessment of the effectiveness of the phased development of rear container terminals // Engineering Bulletin of the Don. -№4.-2012.

In other scientific publications:

6. Korovyakovkiy EK, Panova Yu.N. Forecasting the required throughput capacity of rear container terminals // Integrated logistics - no. 5. - 2011- S. 11-12.

7. Panova Yu.N., Korovyakovsky E.K. Determination of the storage area of ​​the sea container terminal // System analysis and logistics, issue 7. - SPb .: Saint Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation. - 2011. - S. 18-22.

8. Panova Yu.N., Korovyakovsky E.K. Modeling the operation of a sea container terminal // Simulation modeling. Theory and

practice: proceedings of the fifth All-Russian. scientific-practical conf. on imitation modeling and its application in science and industry of St. Petersburg. - vol. 2 -2011. -S.205-210.

In international publications:

9. Panova Yu.N., Potential of organizing transportations from Eurasia through the Trans-Siberian Railway // International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics: Indersains Enterprise. - Issue. 3, No. 2. - 2011. -S.227-244.

10. Korovyakovsky EK, Panova Yu.N. Dynamics of development of rear container terminals in Russia // Intermodal strategies for the integration of ports with inland areas: Research in the field of transport economics: Elsevier. -2011. - S.25-34.

In other foreign publications:

11. Panova Yu.N. Development of cooperation with the EU through integrated railway systems between Finland and Russia // Development of logistics based on building models of a network of suppliers: collection of articles. scientific. tr., Lappeenranta: Technological University of Lappeenranta. - Issue. 215. - 2009. -S.43-50.

12. Panova Yu.N. The impact of the use of accelerated block container trains on the environment // Transport logistics and border energy-efficient supply chains: collection of articles. scientific. tr., Lappeenranta: Technological University of Lappeenranta. - Issue. 221. - 2010. - S. 63-76.

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Introduction.

1 Analysis of the development of container terminals in the context of the integration of the world economy.

1.1 Characteristics of the state of container traffic in Russia and abroad.

1.2 Trends in the development of container infrastructure.

1.3 Analysis of the theory of development of container terminals.

1.4 Formation of a functional list of rear container terminals of the seaports of Russia.

1.5 Conclusions on chapter 1.

2 Classification of factors that determine the need for the construction of rear container terminals (on the example of St. Petersburg).

2.1 Technical factors.

2.2 Economic factors.

2.3 Technological factors.

2.4 Environmental factors.

2.5 Conclusions on chapter 2.

3 Taking into account the probabilistic operation of a container terminal during its stage-by-stage construction.

3.1 Simulation modeling of technological sections of a container terminal.!.

3.2 Formalization and algorithmization of tasks for modeling.

3.3 Determination of the dependences of fluctuations in the size of movement and the probabilistic nature of service channels.

3.4 Analysis of the limiting parameters of the container terminal.

3.5 Conclusions on chapter 3.

4 Method of substantiating the step-by-step development of container terminals in conditions of growing volumes of work.

4.1 The concept of the rational staging of the development of rear container terminals.

4.2 Method of Dynamic Programming in the choice of the appropriate staging of the terminal development.

4.3 Algorithm for determining the rational stages of development of the rear container terminal.

4.4 Preparation of initial data for solving the problem of phased development of the terminal,

4.5 Conclusions on chapter 4.

5 Feasibility study of the phased development of the rear container terminal.

5.1 Development of the rear terminal diagram and options for its technical condition

5.2 Formation of a matrix of capital investments and operating costs by options of the terminal's technical condition.

5.3 Choice of rational stages of development.

5.4 Probabilistic assessment of the phased development of a rear container terminal,

5.5 Conclusion 1 according to chapter 5.

Introduction 2012, dissertation on transport, Panova, Yulia Nikolaevna

Relevance of the research topic

With Russia's accession to the WTO, modernization and innovative development of the country's economy, the tasks associated with increasing the capacity of infrastructure industries have acquired particular importance.

The shortage of free warehouse space, typical for the largest sea container terminals in Russia, creates the preconditions for a decrease in revenues to the country's budget. First of all, income from the processing of I economically profitable container cargo due to their partial transfer I to the seaports of the neighboring Baltic countries and the Black Sea I region. |

Based on the generalization of foreign experience, it has been established that a successful solution to the problem of strengthening the competitive position of Russian seaports can be achieved through the development of rear terminals, which allow providing the client with services in the same volume as in the seaport.

The formation of the rear transport infrastructure contributes to the II increase in the throughput of seaports, since if it is available I it becomes possible to quickly export non-cleared goods from the port to the I rear terminals for performing customs operations, services for loading / unloading containers, picking, packing goods, forming enlarged cargo places, etc. In a stable I

I ~ the growth of container flows and limited opportunities for the development of existing ports, the option of building a rear terminal may be the only acceptable one, although a priori one of the most expensive. I

In the current situation, characterized by the desire to achieve the maximum economic effect and the desire at the same time to ensure the stable operation of the transport complex of Russia, an urgent task is to justify the phased development of rear container terminals. The importance of solving this problem is determined, on the one hand, by large capital investments associated with the construction of a new terminal, and on the other hand, by operational losses in case of insufficient or excessive capacity.

The degree of elaboration of the problem

Fundamental issues of development of cargo terminals and their technical characteristics are considered by such scientists as A. A. Abramov, A. S. Balalaev, A. T. Deribas, V. V. Dybskaya, J1. A. Kogan, Yu. T. Kozlov, JI. A. Krasikova, A. JI. Kuznetsov, V. N. Kustov, V. S. Lukinsky, O. B. Malikov,

F. A. Pladis, V. V. Povorozhenko, V. I. Sergeev, T. G. Sergeeva, M. D. Sitnik,!

A. A. Smekhov, A. J1. Stepanov, M. N. Terterov, V. A. Shkurin, and other scientists and specialists. Aspects of the development of rear terminals in Europe, Asia, North America, South Africa, Australia are reflected in the works of foreign scientists: A. Beresford, D. Voxenius

J. Woxeniiis, G. Gujar, C. Caballini, M. Matsia

M. Mattheè, C. Macharis, A. Ng, T. Notteboom

T. Nottebojom), S. Pettit, D.-P. Rodrigue (J.-P. Rodrigue), B. Poco i

V. Roso), B. Slack (V. Slack).

The analysis of domestic and foreign experience in the development of cargo terminals showed that the theoretical and practical aspects of the construction of rear container terminals have not been sufficiently studied by Russian scientists so far, which indicates the need for further research.

The purpose of the dissertation is to develop a method for substantiating the rational stages of development of rear container I terminals with a steady increase in the volume of their work.

To achieve this goal, the following main tasks were solved in the dissertation work:

Generalized theoretical studies in the development of container terminals;

Analyzed the main factors that determine the need and feasibility of the construction of rear container terminals;

A probabilistic description of the operation of technological sections of container terminals is proposed by the method of discrete-event simulation in the Apylogy software environment;

A general method for substantiating the stage-by-stage development of terminals has been developed;

A practical check of the proposed method for choosing a rational staged development of container terminals, taking into account the stochastic nature of traffic flows, has been carried out.

Research methods. To solve the problems posed in the thesis, the methods of graph theory, imitation discrete-event modeling, probability theory and mathematical statistics, dynamic programming were used.

The object of the research is cargo handling structures on the network of interacting sea and rail transport modes.

The subject of the research is methods and models of the phased development of cargo handling structures of the transport network.

The study is carried out within the boundaries of the points of interaction of sea and rail transport modes (rear container terminals,).

The scientific novelty of the performed research is as follows:

1. Discrete-event simulation models of a checkpoint and a cargo railway front of a container terminal have been developed for automated analysis of their parameters when external influences change.

2. A method for substantiating the stages of development of a rear container terminal based on dynamic programming is proposed.

3. A probabilistic assessment of the stages of development based on the introduction of a risk adjustment to the discount rate has been carried out.

The practical significance of the dissertation work is the possibility of using the proposed method by design and scientific organizations.

Approbation of the results of dissertation work.

The research materials were reported and received a positive assessment at ten international and five all-Russian scientific and practical conferences held in Latvia (Riga), Poland (Katowice), Russia (Vladivostok, St. Petersburg, Khabarovsk) , Finland (Kotka, Kouvola, reported, Lappeenranta, Turku). The main provisions of the work were also discussed and approved at the meetings of the department "Logistics and commercial work" of the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "St. Petersburg State University of Railways" in 2011-2012.

The dissertation proposals were used in the form of recommendations by the development department of OJSC Petrolesport in the development of projects for the construction of rear container terminals and the implementation of their feasibility study, which is confirmed by the act on the implementation of the results.

Higher Attestation Commission of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation.

The structure and scope of the thesis. The dissertation work consists of an introduction, five chapters, a conclusion, a bibliography of 156 titles, three annexes, presented on 148 pages and contains 25 tables and 22 figures.

Conclusion dissertation on the topic "Substantiation of the stages of development of rear container terminals"

6 General conclusions

The performed research allows us to conclude the following.

1. In the context of the completed integration of Russia into the world economy and the continuing modernization of the country along an innovative path, the construction of rear terminals is advisable, especially when they are created near large port cities in order to solve the problem of the deficit in the processing capacity of seaports.

2. Analysis of domestic and foreign experience in the development of cargo terminals has shown that the theoretical and practical j aspects of the construction of rear container terminals have been clearly insufficiently studied by Russian scientists.

3. Analysis of the factors that determine the need for the construction of rear ¡terminals shows that they can be divided into technical, economic, technological and environmental. The most i significant ¡of them, from the point of view of meeting the demand for processing the growing cargo traffic, are technical factors. At the same time, on the basis of the decomposition of technical factors according to the principle of increasing the efficiency of the seaport operation, it was found that the construction of the rear terminal I contributes to the greatest increase in the processing capacity of the port, while the expansion of the warehouse area due to the demolition of non-functioning production facilities or an increase in the height of the stack of containers ensures the least growth of its productivity. one

4. For seaports, the development of which is complicated due to their location I within the residential area, the option of creating a rear I terminal may be the only acceptable one, although a priori one of the most costly.

5. To ensure the specified processing capacity of container terminals, it is necessary to organize the effective operation of checkpoints and freight railway fronts, for which the simulation models proposed in the thesis can be recommended that describe their modes of operation and allow using control actions to determine the most stable parameters of these technological plots.

6. To substantiate the step-by-step development of rear container terminals in the context of growing volumes of work, a dynamic programming method is proposed, which has found wide application in the transport sector to solve similar problems.

7. Preparation of initial data for solving the problem of choosing a rational stage of development of the rear terminal is of particular importance and includes: forecasting the volume of the terminal's work during the billing period; determination of the power of cargo devices; development of options for the technical condition and the scheme of the projected object, the matrix of capital investments and operating costs by options for the technical condition and years of the billing period. To calculate the initial investment in the development of the terminal, a generalized base-index method is recommended, which is the most accurate in calculating the cost determined by estimates and including direct costs, overhead costs and estimated profit.

8. The expected economic effect from the implementation of the proposed method of phased development of the terminal at a discount rate of E = 0.08 in the considered example with an annual processing capacity of 884 thousand 1 containers in twenty-foot equivalent was

870 million rubles. or 25% of the amount required for the introduction of all complexes and 1 device in one stage. It should be noted that any deviation from the timeframes for the commissioning of the next stages of construction found according to the rational trajectory of development leads to an increase in the total amount of the reduced costs.

9. When solving the problem of substantiating the stages of development of rear

119 container terminals, it is necessary to take into account the risk factors associated with the inaccuracy of the forecast of the future volumes of transportation work. For this purpose, the value of the risk adjustment should be added to the discount rate. The introduction of a risk adjustment leads, as a rule, to an increase in the number of development stages and a delay in the timing of the introduction of regular events.

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